The market for agricultural tractors and construction equipment in India is growing rapidly. Without further regulatory action to control emissions from these sources, they are expected to surpass on-road vehicles as the predominant transportation-related source of particulate matter (PM) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) in the next 10-15 years.
This study used an emission inventory model to evaluate alternative regulatory control scenarios for non-road equipment in India on the basis of air pollutant emissions. Regulatory pathways are based on similar programs implemented in the United States (U.S.) and European Union (EU), as well as forward looking improvements to these programs.
Results indicate that a Trem/CEV VI regulatory scenario provides the largest emissions reductions between 2015 and 2040 relative to the baseline scenario in which no changes are made to current regulatory requirements. In this scenario, U.S. Tier 4f equivalent emission standards are adopted in 2019, and forward-looking standards based on Euro VI on-road heavy-duty vehicle standards are adopted in 2024. Trem/CEV VI standards are primarily characterized by more stringent NOx control requirements for engines less than 56 kW. Relative to baseline projections, this pathway results in PM and NOx reductions of 1,000 and 9,500 for agricultural tractors and 740 and 13,000 kilotons for construction equipment, respectively, between 2015 and 2040.
A key insight that emerges from this analysis is that simply adopting standards developed in other regions will not be sufficient to address the unique challenges imposed by the nature of the Indian non-road vehicle and equipment market.