Greenhouse gas controls alone won’t align aviation with the Paris Agreement

New ICCT study finds that short-lived climate pollutant controls could enable climate-neutral growth in aviation

(San Francisco, CA) September 23, 2025 —   A new study from the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) finds that achieving net-zero carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from airlines will not be enough to align aviation with the Paris Agreement. Instead, updated strategies need to include controls on short-lived climate pollutants (SLCP) like condensation trails (contrails), nitrogen oxides, and black carbon to complement existing greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation.

This report comes as the United Nation’s International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) gathers in Montreal for its 42nd triennial Assembly from September 23rd to October 3rd, 2025. There, policymakers will debate whether to supplement ICAO’s current 2050 net-zero CO₂ goal with supplemental targets for SLCPs, notably contrails.

The report, Aviation Vision 2050: The Potential for Climate-Neutral Growth, concludes that aviation warming from 2025 to 2050 can be slashed by 90% by combining action on both SLCPs and GHGs. The study reflects the first deep decarbonization roadmap to reflect SLCP controls and finds that contrail avoidance modeled to be the most impactful and cost-effective lever, accounting for 40% of total avoided warming by 2050.

Figure. Aviation’s projected contribution to global warming by scenario, 1940 to 2050

“The good news is that curbing airlines’ climate impact may be easier than most expect,” says Sola Zheng, lead author of the study. “The bad news is that governments aren’t yet prioritizing the low hanging fruit of contrail avoidance.”

Using advanced modeling tools, the report estimates aviation’s warming potential through 2050 across five scenarios that span the full range of GHG and SLCP control. Under the Historical Trends scenario, aviation’s contribution to global warming would reach 0.12 °C in 2050, or double the historical contribution up to 2025 (0.063 °C). Maximum efforts to cut both GHGs and SLCPs are projected to limit additional aviation warming through 2050 to only 0.005 °C, or just 10% above existing contribution. This would align aviation with the Paris Agreement’s most aggressive (1.5 °C) temperature goal.

“Governments and industry are right to invest in clean aviation fuels, which are essential to the long-term sustainability of aviation,” says Dan Rutherford, ICCT’s Senior Director of Research. “But small changes in how aircraft are flown to cut contrails may protect our climate even more in the near and medium-term.”

Contrail avoidance, SAFs, hydrotreating, and operational efficiency were found to account for nearly 90% of avoidable warming in 2050. Policy solutions include widescale avoidance trials coordinated by air navigation service providers, mandates and incentives for SAF and hydrotreating fossil jet fuel, carbon pricing policies to promote more fuel-efficient operations, and deployment of sustainable aviation fuels.

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Media Contact
Jessica Peyton
Associate Communications Specialist, ICCT
communications@theicct.org 

Publication details 
Title: Aviation Vision 2050: The potential for climate-neutral growth
Authors: Xinyi Sola Zheng, Jayant Mukhopadhaya Ph.D., Jonathan Benoit, Supraja N. Kumar, Dan Rutherford Ph.D., Deniz Rhode, Daniel Sitompul

About the International Council on Clean Transportation 
The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) is an independent research organization providing first-rate, unbiased research and technical and scientific analysis to environmental regulators. Our mission is to improve the environmental performance and energy efficiency of road, marine, and air transportation, in order to benefit public health and mitigate climate change. Founded in 2001, we are a nonprofit organization working under grants and contracts from private foundations and public institutions.

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