Chile can help pave the way to clean transport in Latin America

Chile made history when it became the first Latin American country to commit to reaching climate neutrality by 2050. The country’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement pledges to cut carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) emissions to 95 million tonnes (Mt) within this decade—a decrease of about 11% from 2020 levels, excluding negative emissions due to land use, land-use change, and forestry. With transportation consuming nearly 40% of final energy and two-thirds of petroleum products in the country, reducing emissions from this sector will be critical to achieving Chile’s climate targets. 

Strong policies and targets are already in place. This was highlighted in the ICCT’s recently published updated assessment of the global transition to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), which models vehicle sales and emissions through 2050 based on policy and market developments. We found that if Chile meets its existing and proposed vehicle targets, it would closely follow a Paris Agreement-aligned trajectory for road transport emissions compatible with limiting warming to below 2 °C.   

The report analyzed three scenarios for Chile’s road transport emissions. The Baseline scenario reflects policies adopted through August 2024, which include efficiency standards for light-duty vehicles effective from 2024 and for light commercial vehicles that will be implemented beginning in 2026. Chile’s 2022 energy efficiency law also requires that a heavy-duty vehicle efficiency standard be adopted in 2026 and be implemented starting in 2028. The Momentum scenario, meanwhile, incorporates the non-binding targets of the 2021 National Electromobility Strategy—100% ZEVs for new sales of urban buses and light-duty and light commercial vehicles by 2035 and heavy vehicles and intercity buses by 2045, as well as commitments under international agreements to accelerate ZEV adoption in the light-duty and medium- and heavy-duty segments. The third is an Ambitious scenario created by the ICCT that is aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement; for Chile, the Momentum and Ambitious scenarios are the same for all vehicle categories except two- and three-wheelers (see Figure 1).  

Chile’s Momentum scenario is thus on pace with a Paris Agreement-aligned trajectory that envisions 100% new ZEVs across all vehicle categories by 2045 or earlier. In other words, looking ahead, Chile’s key challenge lies in achieving its defined targets and commitments rather than in setting a more ambitious pathway.  

Figure 1. Percentage of new zero-emission vehicle sales by vehicle category and scenario

How would achieving these targets and commitments position Chile relative to its overall NDC commitment? Figure 2 shows well-to-wheel (WTW) CO₂ emissions in Chile in the Baseline and Momentum scenarios. In 2020, the country’s road transport sector produced around 30 Mt of CO₂ emissions. In the Baseline, emissions are projected to rise by about 30% by 2030, then plateau through 2050. In contrast, the Momentum scenario projects a slight increase in emissions through 2030 that is followed by a sharp decline that results in emissions in 2050 approximately two-thirds below the 2020 level. While projected road transport emissions reductions in the Momentum scenario would not be enough to secure Chile’s NDC target of an 11% reduction in overall CO₂e emissions by 2030, reducing 2050 emissions by more than 30 Mt CO₂–nearly equivalent to total road transport emissions in 2020—relative to the Baseline would be a major achievement.

Figure 2. WTW CO₂ road transport emissions by scenario for Chile

Chile’s efforts to reduce emissions from road transport are thus establishing a solid foundation and setting a strong example for other governments in Latin America. The country can take a couple of steps to ensure it stays on track. 

First, Chile can lock in its proposed policies and non-binding targets. This means finalizing heavy-duty vehicle fuel efficiency standards and working to ensure compliance via enforcement of these standards across all segments, including things like penalties for not meeting targets. Energy efficiency standards in transport are crucial because they offer significant and cost-effective emission reductions. 

Chile could also make its current ZEV targets legally binding and enforceable. Implementing ZEV sales requirements—even if starting with only some vehicle segments—promotes regulatory and market certainty for automakers, consumers, and charging infrastructure providers that in turn enables investments in vehicle supply and infrastructure. Furthermore, promoting interoperable charging and ensuring equal access to charging infrastructure will be key to a smooth and equitable ZEV transition in Chile.  

Complementary strategies could lead to additional CO₂ savings. Examples include avoiding road vehicle activity and shifting to lower-emitting modes, accelerating the transition to clean electricity and hydrogen, and promoting uptake of advanced efficiency technologies for remaining internal combustion engine vehicle sales. When combined with an accelerated transition to ZEVs, ICCT research has found that these measures could collectively cut global cumulative CO₂ from 2020 to 2050 in half compared with the total emissions projected over the same period in the Baseline scenario. 

Chile has distinguished itself as a clean transportation champion by setting ambitious emissions reduction and vehicle electrification targets. By following through with steps to achieve these commitments, it could cement its role as a regional climate leader and help pave the way for transport decarbonization throughout Latin America.