Vision 2050: Fuel standards to align international shipping with the Paris Agreement
Report
Greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution from global shipping, 2016–2023
Building on a previous analysis that reported global ship emissions between 2013 and 2015, this report assesses ship emissions over 2016–2023 using updated, state-of-the-science methods, providing new insights into the maritime shipping sector’s recent climate and environmental performance. The data presented in this report highlight the urgency of accelerating the adoption of zero-emission fuels and technologies to align the shipping sector with global climate goals.
Key findings include:
- From 2016 to 2023, total tank-to-wake (TTW) greenhouse gas emissions increased by 12%, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.4%. Shipping’s share of global anthropogenic CO2e100 emissions remained stable at approximately 1.7% (or 2.3% of global anthropogenic CO2).
- Despite improvements in fleet-wide carbon intensity, which declined by about 10.3% from 2016 to 2023, absolute emissions have continued to rise. This divergence reflects the rapid growth in global shipping transport work, which expanded by 21% over the same period.
- The fuel mix in shipping has undergone significant shifts. Consumption of heavy fuel oil has largely been replaced by very low sulfur fuel oil since 2020, while the use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) nearly doubled between 2016 and 2023. Methane emissions from LNG-fueled ships grew by more than 2.5 times during the study period due to the prevalence of dual-fuel internal combustion engines with high methane slip.
- Black carbon emissions remain a significant concern, representing 8% of the total TTW CO2e100 emissions (or 23% of the total TTW CO2e20 emissions) released during the study period.
Figure. Transport work, CO2 emissions, and average carbon intensity from 2016 to 2023
Data on ship activity and emissions by ship class across all years studied are provided in the “supplemental material” Excel sheet below.
Attachments
Supplemental data - Greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution from global shipping, 2016–2023