Black carbon emissions from EU shipping in the Arctic likely higher than assumed, ICCT study reveals

Berlin, 28 May 2025 — Previous assessments may have significantly underestimated the climate impact of EU shipping in the Arctic by focusing only on vessels flying EU flags, a new report from the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) finds. The study, Black carbon and CO₂ emissions from EU-regulated shipping in the Arctic, shows that between 2015 and 2021, black carbon (BC) emissions in the region nearly doubled — with a substantial share coming from ships traveling to and from EU ports. 

Black carbon, typically produced by incomplete combustion in marine engines, contributes to global warming and is linked to health impacts, including lung cancer, respiratory illness, and cardiopulmonary disease. It is considered a key driver of the rapid loss of Arctic Sea ice, a region experiencing significant environmental stress due to rapid warming, with temperatures rising three to four times faster than the global average.  

“Our findings show that ships connected to EU trade, regardless of their flag, are major drivers of black carbon pollution in the Arctic,” says Liudmila Osipova, ICCT Senior Researcher and lead author of the study. “Recognizing these emissions in future policies could help the EU better align its climate goals with its real footprint in the Arctic.” 

The EU generally accounts for Arctic shipping emissions only from ships flying EU flags (“EU-flagged ships”) in the region. This study expands the scope by also assessing emissions from ships traveling to and from EU ports (“EU-regulated ships”). The study compares the fleet composition, fuel use, and BC and CO2 emissions of these ships across both the broadly-defined Geographic Arctic (north of 59°N) and the IMO Arctic as defined by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Polar Code. 

Between 2015 and 2021, the study finds, BC emissions in the IMO Arctic nearly doubled. EU-regulated ships contributed significantly: among vessels of at least 5,000 GT, EU-regulated ships emitted 52 tonnes of BC, accounting for 23% of total emissions. This is nearly twice the 27 tonnes emitted by EU-flagged ships, which made up 12% of emissions. In the broader Geographic Arctic, EU-regulated ships emitted 317 tonnes of BC and 1.9 million tonnes of CO₂ representing 44% and 60% of emissions from vessels of the same size. By comparison, EU-flagged ships contributed just 145 tonnes of BC and 726,000 tonnes of CO₂ or 20% and 23% of the emissions, respectively. 

Despite its potent climate and health impacts, BC remains one of the most unregulated short-lived climate and air pollutants. While the EU has committed to addressing shipping emissions as part of its broader Arctic climate strategy, BC emissions have not been included in the scope of EU maritime policies, such as FuelEU Maritime and the extension of the EU Emissions Trading System to the maritime sector.   

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Media contact
Sophie Ehmsen, communications@theicct.org

Publication details Title: Black carbon and CO₂ emissions from EU-regulated shipping in the Arctic
Authors: Liudmila Osipova and Ketan Gore

Please use this link when citing this report: theicct.org/publication/black-carbon-and-co2-emissions-from-eu-regulated-shipping-in-the-arctic-may25

About the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT)
The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) is an independent nonprofit research organization founded to provide exceptional, objective, timely research and technical and scientific analysis to environmental regulators. Our work empowers policymakers and others worldwide to improve the environmental performance of road, marine, and air transportation to benefit public health and mitigate climate change. We began collaborating and working as a group of like-minded policymakers and technical experts, formalizing our status as a mission-driven non-governmental organization in 2005.

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