The gap between real-world and official values for CO2 emissions and fuel consumption grows again despite new test procedure 

A new ICCT study indicates that the gap between real-world and official CO₂ emission and fuel consumption values of new combustion engine cars increased between 2018 and 2022 from 8% to 14%.

Berlin, 31 January – The average gap, or divergence, between the official and real-world fuel consumption and CO₂ emission values of passenger cars in Europe has grown again despite the introduction of a new vehicle test procedure. The gap reached a level of 14% in 2022, i.e. real-world emission levels were 14% higher than advertised by manufacturers. The gap has grown 80% in five years, going up from a level of 8% in 2018. If not addressed, this trend will compromise the effectiveness of the EU’s CO₂ reduction targets. It will also lead to false consumer expectations about real-world fuel consumption as well as the associated costs and environmental impact.

The results are based on an investigation by the nonprofit research organization International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT). The study analyzes official CO₂ emission data, a proxy for fuel consumption, reported by the European Environment Agency (EEA), combined with real-world fuel consumption information from more than 160,000 combustion engine and conventional hybrid cars reported by consumers on the spritmonitor.de website. (Plug-in hybrid cars were analyzed separately in a previous report.)

Official CO₂ emission values are determined through measurements in a controlled laboratory environment. In 2017, a new test procedure, the Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP), replaced the former New European Drive Cycle (NEDC). While the new WLTP values are more representative of real-world values than their predecessor—and consequently lowered the gap from 33% in 2018 to 8% in the same year—, the gap is now growing again. While official fuel consumption and CO₂ emission values dropped by about 7.3% between 2018 and 2022, the reduction achieved on the road was less than one-third, with only 2.3%.

Gap or divergence between real-world and type-approval CO₂ emission values of NEDC and WLTP type-approved internal combustion engine and hybrid passenger cars registered in Germany. Data sources: European Environmental Agency (EEA) and spritmonitor.de

Jan Dornoff, Research Lead at the ICCT and co-author of the report, emphasizes, “Our analysis shows that the real-world gap is growing again, after the introduction of WLTP. Without counteraction, official CO₂ emission values will become increasingly unrepresentative of real-world values, and mandatory reductions for official values will not be reflected in the actual CO₂ emissions. This will undermine the EU’s efforts to reduce transport-related CO₂ emissions and result in consumers paying more for fuel than anticipated.”

To prevent the gap from growing, the European Commission is mandated by the CO₂ standards regulation to assess the development of a mechanism or process. This mechanism would adjust the manufacturers’ CO₂ emission performance based on real-world data recorded by on-board fuel and energy consumption monitoring (OBFCM) devices. The ICCT study proposes a correction mechanism that would compensate for excess CO₂ emissions released due to a growing gap.

“The ICCT has been monitoring these disparities since the early 2010s, and fortunately, EU regulators now have appropriate tools to correct these divergences with transparent and reliable data. Using these tools, a correction mechanism can ensure that the CO₂ emissions reduction targets that manufacturers must meet in the coming years are proportionally updated in accordance with the intended original stringency written into the law,” recommends Dr. Peter Mock, ICCT Europe’s Managing Director.

Additionally, on-board fuel consumption data could benefit consumers by providing real-world estimates of emissions and fuel consumption on vehicle efficiency labels. Furthermore, the authors suggest making anonymized OBFCM data, merged with relevant vehicle characteristics, publicly available to facilitate independent research using representative real-world fuel and energy consumption data.

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Media contact
Susana Irles, susana.irles@theicct.org
+49 (0) 302 332 68412

Publication details
Title: On the way to ‘real-world’ CO₂ values? The European passenger car market after 5 years of WLTP
Authors: Jan Dornoff, Victor Valverde Morales, Uwe Tietge

Please use this link when citing this report: https://theicct.org/publication/real-world-CO2-emission-values-vehicles-Europe-jan24

About the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT)
The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) is an independent nonprofit research organization founded to provide exceptional, objective, timely research and technical and scientific analysis to environmental regulators. Our work empowers policymakers and others worldwide to improve the environmental performance of road, marine, and air transportation to benefit public health and mitigate climate change. We began collaborating and working as a group of like-minded policymakers and technical experts, formalizing our status as a mission-driven non-governmental organization in 2005.

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