New study: Scrapping old diesel and petrol vehicles lowers public health risks and supports Germany’s climate goals

The introduction of a scrappage scheme targeting old diesel and gasoline vehicles could close one-third of Germany’s projected transportation emissions reduction gap while reducing harmful air pollution.

(Berlin, Germany) 17 October 2024 – Germany risks falling short in meeting its 2030 climate targets without additional measures to reduce emissions in the transportation sector: Projections suggest a substantial gap of 34 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent emissions (CO₂e) for passenger cars. A new study by the independent, non-profit research organization International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) shows that the introduction of a voluntary scrappage scheme for old, inefficient diesel and gasoline cars could help reduce the emissions gap by a third, while also improving public health.

The German government is currently discussing various measures to reduce emissions in the transport sector and to support the struggling car industry. These options include the introduction of a scrappage scheme, in which car owners receive a subsidy when switching from a combustion engine vehicle to an electric car. A comprehensive analysis by the ICCT sheds light on the potential costs and emission reductions of a scrappage program that focuses on scrapping older diesel and gasoline vehicles and compares these with alternatives such as e-fuels and avoid-and-shift strategies.

“Germany has 49 million passenger cars, most of them gasoline and diesel vehicles, on the road. This is putting its climate goals at risk. While different strategies come with varying costs and benefits, our study examines these options and presents a cost-effective scrappage program that maximizes societal health benefits,” says Kyle Morrison, ICCT Researcher and lead author of the study.

The scrappage scheme presented in the study focuses on diesel vehicles that are at least 15 years old and gasoline vehicles that are at least 25 years old. Participating vehicle owners would be compensated for 80% of the residual value of their vehicles. This kind of programme could reduce up to 11 million tonnes of CO₂e.

The reduction of air pollutants would also bring major health benefits, including fewer premature deaths from cardiovascular and lung disease. The overall societal benefits of scrapping older diesel cars exceed those of gasoline cars, as diesel cars have higher pollutant emissions. Health benefits account for around 40% of the overall benefits of scrapping diesel vehicles, compared to around 16% for gasoline vehicles.

The study compares these results with the adoption of e-fuels, which are often discussed as an alternative for reducing emissions in the transport sector. E-fuels are synthetic fuels produced using water and CO₂ from the air and can be used in combustion engine vehicles. In 2030, e-fuels produced in Germany are projected to cost about €910 per tonne of CO₂e avoided and about €619 per tonne avoided if imported from Brazil, a country rich in renewable energy. The potential of e-fuels to reduce emissions from passenger cars is only up to about 190,000 tonnes of CO₂e. The voluntary scrappage scheme would reduce emissions by 11 million tonnes at a cost of €313 per tonne avoided for scrapping diesel cars and €255 for gasoline cars, not including the health benefits of the program. If the health benefits were also considered, the abatement costs per vehicle scrapped would be negative, as the program has positive net benefits.

“E-fuel production costs are price prohibitive and importing them from other regions outside of Germany would, even in 2030, likely be up to three times more expensive than a voluntary scrappage scheme, even before considering the health benefits of a scrappage scheme. Relying on e-fuels also moves us away from our goal of reducing air pollution and safeguarding public health,” explains Dr. Peter Mock, Managing Director at ICCT Europe.

Roadblocks to the implementation of a scrappage scheme mainly relate to state funding and uncertainty regarding owners’ voluntary participation. Less-than-full participation could arise from a potential lack of alternative modes of transport or the financial inability of some households to afford a replacement vehicle. Additional strategies, like increased funding of public transportation and establishing speed limits, could help close the remaining transport emissions gap. Increased funding for public transportation could also promote participation in the scrappage program. Policy measures such as an income-based scrappage payment could improve both the social equity and the cost-effectiveness of the program.

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Media contact
Sophie Ehmsen, Communications Associate, communications@theicct.org

Publication details
Title: Cleaning up Germany’s vehicle stock: Strategies to decarbonize the passenger car fleet
Authors: Kyle Morrison, Joshua Miller, Patricia Ferrini Rodrigues, Eamonn Mulholland, Yuanrong Zhou, Chelsea Baldino, Jonathan Benoit
View or cite report: theicct.org/publication/vehicle-stock-emissions-pv-germany-oct24

About the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT)
The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) is an independent nonprofit research organization founded to provide exceptional, objective, timely research and technical and scientific analysis to environmental regulators. Our work empowers policymakers and others worldwide to improve the environmental performance of road, marine, and air transportation to benefit public health and mitigate climate change. We began collaborating and working as a group of like-minded policymakers and technical experts, formalizing our status as a mission-driven non-governmental organization in 2005.

Find us at:
www.theicct.org
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