Miscellaneous Press release
Low-Carbon Fuel Standards could provide billions in support of commercial vehicle electrification
Pricing credits high enough is critical for transportation electrification.
(San Francisco, CA) 8, Oct, 2025— A new study from the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) finds that the amendments made to the Low-Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) in November 2024 have the potential to offer around $8.8 billion in support for medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV) electrification over the next decade. Although the exact amount could vary, the level of funding is expected to far exceed that of any previous program for the MHDV segment.
The study estimates that the combination of funding from energy and infrastructure credits and reinvested credit revenue represents unprecedented funding levels that could range from $4 billion to over $16 billion depending on credit prices. Even at the lower end, this funding would nearly triple what California has invested in zero-emission trucks and buses since 2010 and could cover most of the infrastructure costs needed for commercial vehicle electrification through 2035.
Despite the program’s strong potential, the study notes that actual outcomes depend on LCFS credit prices, which can fluctuate based on market dynamics.
“Pricing LCFS credits high enough is critical for generating revenue that can be leveraged for charging infrastructure funding, charging cost reductions, and point-of-sale vehicle rebates,” says Jane O’Malley, Senior Researcher with the ICCT Fuels team. “Without steps to stabilize prices at a sustainable level, much of the potential is left on the table.”
Among other recommendations, the paper suggests that raising the cap on infrastructure crediting from 2.5% to 5% of quarterly deficits could unlock up to an additional $1.7 billion in additional support for fast charging infrastructure.
“This is the one secured amount of revenue that exists for heavy-duty electrification, in the face of federal and state regulation rollbacks and threats to funding,” says O’Malley. “In the face of federal rollbacks on BEVs, it is important now more than ever to maintain commitment to the LCFS program.”
Governor Newsom’s Executive Order has re-affirmed California’s commitment to achieving 100% zero-emission heavy-duty trucks by 2045, and 100% zero-emission drayage trucks by 2035. The LCFS, paired with strong credit prices and targeted reinvestment, could be a cornerstone in meeting these targets.
Figure 1. Total LCFS revenue to support MHDV electrification by year
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Media contact
Jessica Peyton, Associate Communications Specialist, ICCT
communications@theicct.org
Publication details
Title: Impacts of California Low Carbon Fuel Standard amendments on support for medium- and heavy-duty vehicle electrification
Authors: Jane O’Malley, Nikita Pavlenko
About the International Council on Clean Transportation
The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) is an independent research organization providing first-rate, unbiased research and technical and scientific analysis to environmental regulators. Our mission is to improve the environmental performance and energy efficiency of road, marine, and air transportation, in order to benefit public health and mitigate climate change. Founded in 2001, we are a nonprofit organization working under grants and contracts from private foundations and public institutions.