Road transport CO2 emissions in the European Union could peak in 2025

Recent regulations, including the CO₂ standards for cars and vans, and its homologue legislation for trucks and buses, have put Europe on track for an early emissions peak.

Berlin, 14 January – In the European Union, transport remains the only major economic sector where carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions have risen since 1990—but this trend may be changing. New projections suggest that recently adopted regulations have put road transport CO₂ emissions on a path to peak as early as 2025. Yet, this promising trajectory depends on maintaining existing CO₂ standards and could falter if regulations are weakened.

The International Council on Clean Transportation released today a new edition of its Vision 2050 series, examining zero-emission vehicle policies and market developments globally. The study analyzes vehicle sales, energy use, and emission trajectories through 2050, evaluating transport’s alignment with Paris Agreement goals.

This year’s findings reveal the critical impact of policies adopted in the past 3 years. Road transport emissions in the European Union are projected to peak at nearly 800 million tonnes of CO₂ in 2025 and decline thereafter by around one-quarter by 2035. This accelerated decline marks a significant shift from earlier projections, reflecting the impact of the transition from conventional cars to zero-emission vehicles.

“Our analysis shows that Europe’s road transport sector is at a historic inflection point,” says Felipe Rodríguez, ICCT Europe Deputy Director. “A decade after the Paris Agreement, Europe is now turning the corner and transitioning to technologies, namely electric vehicles, that will ensure greater energy efficiency and far lower emissions. However, today’s good news carries a critical warning: weakening the current CO₂ targets for car and van manufacturers would jeopardize the decline in emissions, increasing the gap to meet our climate goals on time and undermining Europe’s role as a global beacon for other regions.”

EU road transport CO₂ emissions trajectory from 2020 to 2050  

Projected EU tank-to-wheel CO₂ emissions from road transport compared with an emissions pathway compatible with Paris Agreement goals of keeping warming under 2 °C 

Compared to a 2021 policy baseline, the EU’s world-leading regulations put in place over the past several years have closed by 73% of the gap needed to align road transport with a Paris Agreement-compatible trajectory, as reflected in the ICCT Ambitious scenario. The 2023 EU CO₂ standards for cars and vans, combined with the 2024 truck and bus standards review, have significantly narrowed the emissions gap: by 66% for heavy-duty vehicles and by 75% for light-duty vehicles.

Globally, the study shows a similarly positive finding: road transport CO₂ emissions and liquid fuels consumption could peak as soon as 2025. According to the baseline 2024 scenario, road transport CO₂ emission reductions in three of the largest vehicle markets—China, the European Union, and the United States—are projected to outpace emissions growth in other countries.

The stars of these global trends are three vehicle sectors: passenger cars, two- and three-wheelers, and transit buses. The fast-approaching total cost of ownership and purchase price parity between battery electric vehicles and conventional vehicles supports continued market uptake beyond regulatory requirements, though regulations are still the most promising policy lever to secure a Paris-aligned emissions trajectory.

END

For editors: 

The study considers different carbon emissions scenarios:

• Baselines 2021, 2023, 2024 consider road transport policies adopted until August of the correspondent year.
• Momentum scenario builds on baseline scenarios and considers additional proposed governmental policies and targets.
• Ambitious scenario considers the emissions trajectory compatible with the 2015 Paris Agreement goal of keeping global warming well-below 2 °C.

Please use this link when citing the report: https://theicct.org/publication/vision-2050-global-zev-transition-2024-jan25

Publication title: Vision 2050: Update on the global zero-emission vehicle transition in 2024
Authors: Arijit Sen, Jacob Teter, and Josh Miller

Media contact
Susana Irles, communications@theicct.org 

About the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT)
The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) is an independent nonprofit research organization founded to provide exceptional, objective, timely research and technical and scientific analysis to environmental regulators. Our work empowers policymakers and others worldwide to improve the environmental performance of road, marine, and air transportation to benefit public health and mitigate climate change. We began collaborating and working as a group of like-minded policymakers and technical experts, formalizing our status as a mission-driven non-governmental organization in 2005.

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