Report
Black Carbon and CO2 Emissions from EU-Regulated Shipping in the Arctic
Executive summary
The Arctic region is experiencing significant environmental stress due to rapid warming, with temperatures rising 3–4 times faster than the global average. As Arctic shipping activity increases, so do the associated black carbon (BC) emissions. Black carbon has a 100-year global warming potential 900 times greater than that of CO2, and its effects are amplified in the Arctic region due to the albedo effect. These emissions contribute to further warming and environmental degradation, compounding the challenges faced by this already vulnerable region.
The European Union (EU) has committed to addressing shipping emissions as part of its broader Arctic climate strategy. To date, the contribution of EU shipping to emissions in the Arctic has been primarily assessed based on data from EU-flagged ships. However, the number of ships navigating the Arctic to and from EU ports may be substantially higher, suggesting that previous assessments may underestimate the total impact.
This study compares the composition, fuel use, and BC and CO2 emissions of the EU-flagged fleet in the Arctic, defined as ships flying EU flags, and the EU-regulated fleet in the Arctic, defined as ships reporting to the EU Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) system, meaning they are voyaging to or from EU ports. To capture the full scope of emissions, we assess impacts across both a broadly defined Geographic Arctic region (north of 59°N) and the more limited Arctic as defined by the International Maritime Organization (IMO)’s Polar Code.
Key findings
- In 2021, nearly three-quarters of the ships operating in the Geographic Arctic and half of those in the IMO Arctic were navigating to or from EU ports. Of the 3,171 ships of 5,000 gross tonnage (GT) or more identified in the Geographic Arctic, 2,315 reported to the EU MRV (73%), while only 816 were flagged to an EU state (26%). In the IMO Arctic, 278 of the 564 ships of 5,000 GT or more reported to the EU MRV (49%), while only 112 flew an EU flag (20%).
- In 2021, ships flagged to Norway burned the most fuel by mass in the Geographic Arctic, while Russian-flagged ships burned the most in the IMO Arctic. Norwegian-flagged vessels consumed an estimated 33% of the 3,789 kilotons (kt) of fuel used in the Geographic Arctic in 2021, while Russian-flagged vessels burned closed to half of the 877 kt of fuel consumed in the IMO Arctic the same year.
- Black carbon emissions in the IMO Arctic nearly doubled between 2015 and 2021. In 2021, Arctic shipping emitted 1.5 kt of BC and 12 kt of CO₂ north of 59°N, with about a quarter of these emissions occurring within the boundaries of the IMO Arctic. This indicates a strong growth trend in BC emissions in the IMO Arctic, from 193 tonnes in 2015 to 413 tonnes in 2021.
- Black carbon and CO₂ emissions from EU-regulated ships of at least 5,000 GT are nearly double those from EU-flagged ships. In the Geographic Arctic, EU-regulated ships contributed 44% of BC emissions and 60% of CO₂ emissions from ships at or above 5,000 GT, while EU-flagged vessels accounted for 20% and 23%, respectively. Notably, 72% of BC emissions from EU-regulated ships came from residual fuels. Liquefied natural gas (LNG)-fueled vessels accounted for 31% of the total CO₂ emissions from EU-regulated ships, despite contributing only 2% of BC emissions from all EU-regulated ships operating in the Geographic Arctic. In the IMO Arctic, EU-regulated ships accounted for 23% of BC emissions and 49% of CO₂ emissions from ships at or above 5,000 GT, while EU-flagged ships at or above 5,000 GT contributed only 12% and 20%, respectively.
Policy recommendations
To reduce BC emissions in the Arctic from ships operating to and from EU ports, the following measures could be considered:
- Accounting for BC emissions in the EU MRV database would provide a more comprehensive assessment of the European Union’s role in shipping-related BC emissions, both globally and in the Arctic. Currently, the EU MRV system only mandates the reporting of CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O emissions from maritime transport.
- Recognizing BC as a significant climate pollutant would support the European Union’s efforts to mitigate its climate footprint in the Arctic and help inform policy measures, such as future revisions of the EU Emissions Trading System and FuelEU Maritime.
- Replacing residual fuel with distillate could reduce BC emissions by 50%–80%, depending on engine type and operating conditions. For EU-regulated ships over 5,000 GT in the Geographic Arctic, this would cut BC emissions by 115–183 tonnes—a 16%–25% reduction of the total BC emissions in this size category. Installing diesel particulate filters could increase the emission reductions to 206 tonnes, achieving a 29% total BC emissions reduction from ships over 5,000 GT sailing in the Geographic Arctic.
Our findings highlight the significant contribution of EU-regulated ships to emissions in the Arctic, underscoring the need for more stringent regulations that address BC emissions from ships operating to and from EU ports. Such measures would further demonstrate the European Union’s commitment to mitigating climate change in the Arctic and globally.