White paper

Costs and benefits of soot-free road transport in Nigeria

This study provides information to policymakers in Nigeria to support a transition to soot-free road transport and maximize its net societal benefits. The transition is important because the health burden from air pollution in Nigeria is significant and growing. Also, as the largest vehicle market of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Nigeria’s actions will have substantial influence on the ECOWAS region’s aggregate progress toward updated and harmonized standards for cleaner fuels and vehicles.

This analysis demonstrates the importance and cost-effectiveness of implementing policies already discussed by ECOWAS members. These could require 50 parts per million sulfur fuel by 2020 for imports and by 2024 for domestic refineries, in conjunction with Euro 4/IV standards applied to all new and second-hand vehicle sales. Moreover, the results show that Euro 6/VI standards would produce consistently higher net societal benefits than Euro 4/IV standards from 2020 to 2050. As shown in the table below, this conclusion is consistent for the central, 5th percentile, and 95th percentile estimates. Note that these benefits can only be achieved by applying the same emissions performance standards to both second-hand vehicles—which account for approximately 90% of imported vehicles in Nigeria—and new vehicles.