Working Paper

Real-world use cases for zero-emission trucks: Market review and policy suggestions for Guangdong province

Guangdong province has set an ambitious target for new energy vehicles (NEVs) of 20% of new sales by 2025, and the electrification of heavy-duty trucks (HDTs) will be important not only for meeting that goal but also for significantly reducing carbon emissions in the province. This paper reviews local incentive policies, analyzes province- and city-level sales of zero-emission trucks (ZETs), and conducts a total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis for diesel, electric, and fuel cell construction dump trucks. Based on the findings, the authors identify opportunities and challenges for promoting ZETs and propose incentive policies to expedite market development.

Analysis of Guangdong’s ZET market shows that zero-emission logistics trucks have already experienced strong growth and commercialization and there are existing ZET models for specific use cases. At the same time, challenges remain for dump trucks and tractor-trailers. The study estimates that TCO parity can be achieved in the near term through purchase subsidies for ZETs and emissions charges on diesel trucks. Tailored incentive policies and financial incentives for manufacturers to promote ZET adoption would also help stimulate the market and contribute to Guangdong’s decarbonization and air quality goals.

Zero-emission vehicles