Race to Zero: Zero-emission bus and truck market in the United States (January –June 2024)
Market Spotlight
Race to zero: Zero-emission bus and truck market in the United States (January–March 2025)
In the first quarter of 2025 (Q1 2025), 110,470 new medium- and heavy-duty (MHD) trucks and buses were registered in the United States, of which 596 (0.5%) were zero emission. Compared with the first quarter of 2024, the overall medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV) market shrunk, with 15,048 (-12.0%) fewer vehicles and 219 (-26.9%) fewer zero-emission vehicles registered.
Figure A. Number of zero-emission MHDV registrations in the United States, 2021–Q1 2025
Figure B. Share of zero-emission MHDV registrations in the United States, 2021–Q1 2025
Figure C. Zero-emission MHDV registrations by U.S. state in Q1 2025
Figure D. State deviations from national zero-emission MHDV registration average, Q1 2025
Out of all states, California had the highest number of new zero-emission MHDV registrations (209) in Q1 2025, followed by Pennsylvania (61), Texas (50), New Jersey (37), and New York (34). California also had the highest share of zero-emission MHDV registrations; Washington had the second highest share, followed by New Jersey, Missouri, and New York. Overall, the 11 states that have adopted California’s Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) regulation registered 317 out of 596 (53.2%) total zero-emission MHDV registrations in the country during Q1 2025.1 In these states, 1.6% of MHDV registrations were zero emission, higher than both the average of 0.3% in non-ACT states and the national average of 0.5%.
Zero-emissions market by vehicle type
In Q1 2025, zero-emission vehicles accounted for 5.7% of new bus registrations, a significant decrease from 10.9% in Q1 2024; 0.2% of medium-duty truck (MDT) registrations, a slight increase from 0.1% in Q1 2024; and 0.5% of heavy-duty truck (HDT) registrations, unchanged from Q1 2024.
Buses made up 35% of new zero-emission MHDV registrations in Q1 2025, with trucks accounting for the remaining 65%. This marks a decrease from the zero-emission bus share in 2024, when buses accounted for 47% of the zero-emission market. The shrinking share of buses and the decreased number of registrations suggest a slowdown in the zero-emission bus market this quarter. By contrast, the other two segments—MDTs and HDTs—had no such decline. Fewer zero-emission buses drove the lower share of zero-emission MDHV registrations this quarter overall.
Figure 1.1. Zero-emission MHDV registrations in the United States by type, 2021–Q1 2025
Figure 1.2. Share of MHDV registrations by type and powertrain, Q1 2025
Table 1.1 Share of zero-emission vehicles among new MHDV registrations and quarterly changes, Q1 2025
|
Vehicle type |
Zero-emission share in Q1 2025 |
Relative change vs. Q4 2024 |
Relative change vs. Q1 2024 |
|
Bus |
5.7% |
-44.7% |
-50.6% |
|
MDT |
0.2% |
-14.0% |
65.1% |
|
HDT |
0.5% |
6.8% |
-14.0% |
|
All MHDVs |
0.5% |
-22.0% |
-26.9% |
Buses
With a gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) above 14,001 lb
Buses experienced the largest year-on-year contraction in zero-emission registrations: 209 in Q1 2025 versus 423 in Q1 2024, a 50.6% reduction, far greater than the 5.8% shrinkage in the overall bus market. As a result, the share of zero-emission buses in all bus registrations decreased from 10.9% in Q1 2024 to 5.7% in Q1 2025.
California registered the most zero-emission buses (32 in total) in Q1 2025, with Pennsylvania following close behind at 31 registrations. None of the top five states with the highest share of zero-emission bus registrations have adopted the ACT regulation. Nevertheless, states that have adopted the ACT regulation still fared better overall in new zero-emission bus registrations. Overall, the 11 states that have adopted the ACT regulation registered 63 zero-emission buses, while the remaining states registered 146. The share of zero-emission bus registrations in states that have adopted ACT is 7.4%, compared with 5.6% in other states.
The distribution of new bus registrations by weight class is similar to previous years. All zero-emission buses registered were Classes 7 and 8 (vehicles with a GVWR above 26,001 lb) and classified as multi-purpose buses. A high number of buses were registered with an unspecified vehicle type, especially for zero-emission buses.
With only six manufacturers, the bus market continues to be the most consolidated MHDV market. The market is dominated by Daimler and Traton, who respectively registered 39% and 57% of all internal combustion engine (ICE) buses, respectively, and made up 65% and 23% of new zero-emission bus registrations in Q1 2025, respectively. Following these two manufacturers were Lion Electric and BYD, which exclusively manufacture zero-emission vehicles.
🔍 Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data
Figure 2.1. Zero-emission bus registrations in the United States, 2021–Q1 2025
Figure 2.2. Share of zero-emission bus registrations in the United States, 2021–Q1 2025
Figure 2.3. Zero-emission bus registrations by U.S. state, Q1 2025
Figure 2.4. State deviations from national zero-emission bus registration average, Q1 2025
Figure 2.5. Bus registrations by weight class and powertrain, Q1 2025
Figure 2.6. ICE and zero-emission busses registrations by vehicle type, Q1 2025
Table 2.1. ICE vs. zero-emission market shares by manufacturer group for new bus registrations, Q1 2025
|
Manufacturer group |
Zero-emission market share |
ICE market share |
|
Daimler |
64.6% |
39.3% |
|
Traton |
23.0% |
56.6% |
|
BYD |
7.7% |
0.0% |
|
Lion Electric |
4.8% |
0.0% |
|
Others |
0.0% |
4.1% |
Table 2.2. Number and share of buses per manufacturer that are zero-emission
| Manufacturer group | Zero-emission registrations in Q1 2025 | Zero-emission share in Q1 2025 | Relative change vs. Q4 2024 | Relative change vs. Q1 2024 |
| Daimler | 135 | 9.0% | -35.7% | -11.2% |
| Traton | 48 | 2.4% | -59.3% | -76.9% |
| Lion Electric | 10 | 100.0% | -80.0% | -84.1% |
| BYD | 16 | 100.0% | — | — |
MDT Market
Trucks with a GVWR between 14,001 and 26,000 LB (Classes 4–6)
MDTs experienced a 65.1% year-on-year increase in zero-emission registrations, up from 63 vehicles in Q1 2024 (0.1% market penetration) to 104 in Q1 2025 (0.2% market penetration). This growth happened despite contracting of the medium-duty market overall, which had 5,153 fewer registrations (-10.0%) compared with Q1 2024.
In Q1 2025, California, New York, and New Jersey registered the most zero-emission MDTs, with 34, 24, and 15 registrations, respectively, and zero-emission registration shares of 1.1%, 1.4%, and 1.0%, respectively. No other states registered more than 10 zero-emission MDTs. Overall, the 11 states that have adopted the ACT regulation registered 76 zero-emission MDTs (0.7% of all newly registered MDTs), compared with 28 vehicles in all other states (0.1% of all newly registered MDTs).
Classes 5 and 6 made up all zero-emission MDT registrations this quarter, a slight increase from 2024, where 0.5% of registrations were Class 4. Compared with their ICE counterparts, zero-emission trucks have much less body-type variation, with 61% of zero-emission trucks classified as commercial trucks and the rest as rigid trucks.
Daimler made up 83.7% of all zero-emission registrations of MDTs, retaining its dominant market from 2024, when it accounted for 77% of zero-emission MDT registrations. Other manufacturers, like Isuzu and Traton, manufactured the remaining 16.3% of zero-emission MDTs. The proportion of zero-emission vehicles in the MDT product lineups of major manufacturers is still limited; zero-emission registrations were only 2.1% of Daimler’s total MDT registrations, and zero-emission registrations were even lower for other manufacturers.
🔍 Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data
Figure 3.1. Zero-emission MDT registrations in the United States, 2021–Q1 2025
Figure 3.2.
Figure 3.3. Zero-emission MDT registrations by U.S. state, Q1 2025
Figure 3.4. State deviations from national zero-emission MDT registration average, Q1 2025
Figure 3.5. MDT registrations by weight class and powertrain, Q1 2025
Figure 3.6. MDT registrations by vehicle type and powertrain, Q1 2025
Table 3.1. ICE vs. zero-emission market shares by manufacturer group for MDT registrations, Q1 2025
|
Manufacturer group |
Zero-emission market share |
ICE market share |
|
Ford |
0.0% |
45.6% |
|
Traton |
2.9% |
11.5% |
|
Isuzu |
6.7% |
10.4% |
|
Daimler |
83.7% |
9.0% |
|
Stellantis |
0.0% |
7.5% |
|
Others |
6.7% |
16.0% |
Table 3.2. Share and number of MDT registrations per manufacturer that are zero-emission
| Manufacturer group | Zero-emission registrations in Q1 2025 | Zero-emission share in Q1 2025 | Relative change vs. Q4 2024 | Relative change vs. Q1 2024 |
| Daimler | 87 | 2.1% | -21.6% | 383.3% |
| Isuzu | 7 | 0.1% | — | — |
| Traton | 4 | 0.1% | -40.0% | -62.5% |
| Others | 6 | 0.0% | -36.4% | -85.7% |
HDT Market
Trucks with a GVWR above 26,001 lb (Classes 7–8)
The number of zero-emission HDT registrations decreased year-on-year, from 329 in Q1 2024 to 283 in Q1 2025. Yet, the share of newly registered HDTs that were zero-emission remained the same at 0.47%; this is due to a simultaneous contraction of the overall HDT market, which registered 9,952 fewer vehicles in Q1 2025 compared with Q1 2024 (-13.7%).
California had the highest number of new zero-emission HDT registrations with 143 registrations in Q1 2025, more than triple the 36 vehicles registered in Pennsylvania, the state with the second-most registrations. California and New Jersey had the highest share of new zero-emission registrations, at 6.1% and 1.7% of all newly registered HDTs, respectively. Overall, in the 11 states that have adopted ACT regulations, the zero-emission vehicle penetration rate for HDTs was 2.1% (with 178 HDTs), compared with 0.2% (105) for all other states.
For both ICE and zero-emission powertrains, HDT registrations were predominantly Class 8. This is consistent with the weight class breakdown in 2024. An overwhelming majority of zero-emission HDT registrations were tractor trucks (87%), while the other 13% were rigid trucks. Registrations of ICE HDTs had a more even split between tractor trucks and rigid trucks; these two types made up the majority of new registrations for ICE HDTs, with recreational vehicles and other unspecified vehicles accounting for a small fraction of new registrations.
The HDT market was the most diversified of all three segments, with zero-emission HDTs even less concentrated than ICE HDTs. Of the four largest ICE HDT manufacturers, only Daimler and Volvo had significant shares of the zero-emission market, around 20% each, with Daimler having a strong market presence in all three zero-emission MHD segments (buses, MDTs, and HDTs). Despite declaring bankruptcy this quarter, Nikola registered 18.4% of zero-emission HDTs and was the third-largest manufacturer in this segment. The rest of the market was severely fragmented among multiple manufacturers: Paccar (3.9%), Autocar (2.5%), and Traton (2.1%); the remaining 33% of the market was comprised of other manufacturers, including BYD (2.8%), Tesla (1.8%), Battle Motors (1.4%), plus various unspecified manufacturers (27.2%).
🔍 Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data
Figure 4.1. Zero-emission HDT registrations in the United States, 2021–Q1 2025
Figure 4.2.
Figure 4.3. Zero-emission HDT registrations by U.S. state, Q1 2025
Figure 4.4. State deviations from national zero-emission HDT registration average, Q1 2025
Figure 4.5. HDT registrations by weight class and powertrain, Q1 2025
Figure 4.6. HDT registrations by vehicle type and powertrain, Q1 2025
Table 4.1. ICE vs. zero-emission market shares by manufacturer group for new HDT registrations in Q1 2025
|
Manufacturer group |
Zero-emission market share |
ICE market share |
|
Daimler |
18.7% |
39.1% |
|
Paccar |
3.9% |
29.5% |
|
Volvo Truck |
21.2% |
13.7% |
|
Traton |
2.1% |
13.1% |
|
Autocar |
2.5% |
0.9% |
|
Nikola |
18.4% |
0.0% |
|
Others |
33.2% |
3.8% |
Table 4.2. Share and number of HDT registrations per manufacturer that are zero-emission
|
Manufacturer group |
Zero-emission registrations in Q1 2025 |
Zero-emission share in Q1 2025 |
Relative change vs. Q4 2024 |
Relative change vs. Q1 2024 |
|
Volvo Truck |
60 |
0.7% |
-39.4% |
-49.2% |
|
Daimler |
53 |
0.2% |
130.4% |
-22.1% |
|
Nikola |
52 |
100.0% |
33.3% |
108.0% |
|
Paccar |
11 |
0.1% |
22.2% |
-73.2% |
|
Autocar |
7 |
1.3% |
-36.4% |
40.0% |
|
Traton |
6 |
0.1% |
— |
— |
|
Others |
94 |
4.0% |
20.5% |
56.7% |
Market focus: Manufacturer financial data
The contraction of the MHDV market in the United States is reflected in the declining revenues, deliveries, and order intakes of the four major truck manufacturers in the country: Daimler, Volvo Truck, Traton, and Paccar. In their first quarterly financial reports of 2025, all four original equipment manufacturers cited tariffs and economic uncertainty as the main drivers of the market decline.
Daimler, Traton, and Paccar were hit particularly hard this quarter, seeing double-digit declines in truck deliveries compared with Q1 2024; Daimler and Traton also saw double-digit declines in order intake. Volvo Truck was least affected by this market contraction, even seeing a slight increase in order intake. In their report, Volvo Truck attributed this to their new truck models providing increased fuel efficiency and comfort as well as to strong customer relations and customer satisfaction.
|
Manufacturer
|
Revenue Q1 2025 (millions)
|
Revenue change from Q1 2024 (millions)
|
Vehicle deliveries, Q1 2025 |
Relative change in deliveries vs. Q1 2024 |
Vehicle order intake, Q1 2025 |
Relative change in order intake vs. Q1 2024 |
|
Volvo Truck |
26,882 SEK $2,830* |
-355 SEK (-1%) -$37* |
14,315 |
-741 (-5%) |
10,217 |
+597 (+6%) |
|
Daimler |
5,407 EUR $6,339* |
-389 EUR (-7%) -$456* |
38,992 |
-7,237 (-16%) |
31,740 |
-12,910 (-29%) |
|
Traton |
N/A** |
N/A** |
14,115 |
-5,131 (-27%) |
9,584 |
-5,143 (-35%) |
|
Paccar |
$4,627.3*** |
-$1,047.3*** (-18.5%) |
22,200 |
-7,300 (-24.7%) |
N/A |
N/A |
*Currencies converted based on rates from June 30, 2025, published by the U.S. treasury.
**Traton did not provide revenues specific to the United States or North America but did share in their Roadshow presentation that 25% of sales revenue in 2024 came from North America. Traton’s global revenue in Q1 2025 was 10.606 billion Euros, down 10% from 11.798 billion Euros in Q1 2024.
*** Total revenue for North America; this includes revenue from the sale of parts sales and does not exclusively reflect revenue generated from truck sales.
Sources: Fiscal Data, “Currency Exchange Rates Converter,” accessed June 30, 2025, https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/currency-exchange-rates-converter/; Daimler Truck, Daimler Truck Interim Report Q1 2025, May 13, 2025, https://www.daimlertruck.com/fileadmin/user_upload/documents/investors/reports/interim-reports/q1/2025/daimler-truck-ir-interim-report-q1-2025.pdf; Paccar Inc., “PACCAR Achieves Good Financial Performance and Record PACCAR Parts Revenue,” press release, April 29, 2025, https://s202.q4cdn.com/173635405/files/doc_financials/2025/q1/042925-earnings-press-release.pdf; TRATON, Q2/H1 2025 Results Roadshow Presentation, April 2025, https://ir.traton.com/media/document/bba72587-8085-47be-95f8-2f9524ee998c/assets/TRATON_Roadshow_Presentation_April_2025.pdf?disposition=inline; TRATON, TRATON Group 3M 2025 Interim Statement, April 28, 2025, https://ir.traton.com/media/document/092b2ace-a427-4e9e-9aa2-b21e0a429d7e/assets/DE000TRAT0N7-Q1-2025-EQ-E-00.pdf?disposition=inline; Volvo Group, Volvo Group Report on the First Quarter 2025, April 23, 2025, https://www.volvogroup.com/content/dam/volvo-group/markets/master/investors/reports-and-presentations/interim-reports/2025/volvo-group-q1-2025-eng.pdf.