The role of the European Union’s vehicle CO2 standards in achieving the European Green Deal
Working Paper
Estimated cost of diesel emissions control technology to meet future Euro VII standards
The European Commission is currently developing the requirements for the upcoming Euro VII standards. This paper assesses the total manufacturing costs of the emissions control systems—including both engine and aftertreatment technologies—that will likely be required to meet these limits. In particular, this study estimates the costs associated with deploying technologies in heavy-duty trucks that enable very low NOx emission levels under cold start and at low load, conditions that are representative of urban driving operation.
The analysis finds that the technologies required to achieve ultra-low pollutant emissions are already in production or close to commercialization. On the engine and powertrain side, technologies such as cylinder deactivation, EGR cooler bypass, and 48-volt systems could enable better low-load engine-out NOx control, faster catalyst warm-up, and stay-warm thermal management strategies. On the aftertreatment side, compliance with stricter NOx emissions limits is expected to require the use of close-coupled catalysts, increased catalyst volumes, dual urea injection, heated urea dosing, and electric catalyst heaters, as well as high filtration substrates, amongst others.
The estimated incremental costs of meeting the Euro VII standards compared to a typical Euro VI-compliant emissions control system will be between €1,500 and €4,700 in 2025, and between €1,400 and €4,300 in 2030. Therefore, Euro VII will likely result in a cost increase between 2% and 5% relative to the current price of new Euro VI tractor-trailer trucks. Engine-out emissions control represents 0%-41% of the incremental costs of compliance to Euro VII, while the rest accounts for improvements in the engine aftertreatment system.
Increasing the full useful life requirements of aftertreatment systems from the current 700,000 km to 970,000 km and 1,300,000 km would lead to average additional costs of approximately €700 and €1,000, respectively, in 2025.
