Working paper on iLUC in Brazil from Monash University (Ferreira Filho and Horridge)

Indirect land use change (#iLUC) from #ethanol in Brazil is modelled by Ferreira Filho and Horridge using dynamic general equilibrium (#CGE) modelling (the ‘Brazilian Input-Output model’). For 2020, they find that each hectare of additional #sugarcane for ethanol requires 0.14 hectare of new land conversion. This is nearly double the value reported by Nassar et al. (2010). Historical data shows that most new agricultural land in Brazil 1996-2005 was converted from pasture, but that in the same period pasture expanded strongly on unused land (inc. forest). http://www.monash.edu.au/policy/ftp/workpapr/g-218.pdf