TRUE publication
Life-cycle greenhouse gas impact of the low-emission zone in Brussels
Motor vehicles contribute significantly to air pollution in the Brussels Capital Region (BCR) and present significant health risks for residents. This TRUE Initiative study, with technical analysis by the ICCT, builds upon Brussels Environnement‘s continued work to understand the potential impacts and benefits of its low-emission zone (LEZ) by assessing the life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions achieved under various scenarios. These include:
- Business-as-Usual, with a base year of 2019, prior to LEZ implementation;
- LEZ, according to the original LEZ schedule adopted in 2018; and
- LEZ + Good Move, again assuming the original LEZ schedule with policies that incorporate modal shift and traffic reduction strategies.
The analysis projects that the Brussels LEZ, if implemented under the original schedule adopted in 2018, nearly doubles the annual life-cycle GHG reductions by 2030 compared with the Business-as-Usual scenario, or roughly 45% compared to 2019 levels. Between 2019 and 2040, the LEZ is projected to avoid 3.9 Mt of GHG emissions, equivalent to the GHG emissions from around 83,000 gasoline cars.
Under the LEZ + Good Move scenario, the reduction rate of GHG emissions grows. By 2040, 5.7 Mt of GHG emissions are projected to be avoided compared with the Business-as-Usual scenario, which is equivalent to the emissions of around 121,000 gasoline cars.
The paper also models the potential effect of additional policies aimed at strengthening the impact of the LEZ on life-cycle GHG emission reductions. It also analyses the potential impact of future implementation delays.
The study shows that the LEZ in the BCR remains an effective tool for substantially reducing life-cycle GHG emissions from on-road vehicles and underscores its potential to expedite the transition toward less-polluting, or zero-emission, transportation to help meet the city’s air quality and climate goals.
Figure. Annual life-cycle GHG emissions of the Brussels LEZ with a base year of 2019 for each scenario
