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Aligning Colombia’s fuel efficiency standards with ZEV targets to meet Paris climate commitments
In 2021, Colombia’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement became legally binding with the passage of Law 2169, which commits the country to reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent emissions by 51% from the projected baseline by 2030 and to achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century. Meeting these goals will require significant reductions in emissions from transportation, which currently accounts for nearly 40% of Colombia’s final energy consumption.
Accelerated adoption of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) and improved internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle efficiency are key levers to decarbonize road transport. Here we’ll unpack the findings of a recent global study by the ICCT on the pace of the ZEV transition and highlight implications for Colombia’s policies.
We analyzed three scenarios for Colombia’s road transport emissions. The Baseline scenario reflects current policies, including Colombia’s 2019 legislation, Law 1972, which mandates Euro VI-equivalent standards for new medium- and heavy-duty vehicles from 2023 onward, and Law 1964, which requires all urban bus purchases to be ZEVs by 2035. The Momentum scenario incorporates Colombia’s international commitments to the ZEV Declaration (100% ZEV sales for light-duty vehicles by 2035) and the Global MOU on Zero-Emission Medium and Heavy-Duty Vehicles (30% ZEV sales for buses and trucks by 2030, and 100% by 2040); fulfilling these commitments would also achieve Colombia’s target of putting 600,000 electric vehicles on the road by 2030. The Ambitious scenario is a Paris-aligned scenario for global ZEV uptake; in the case of Colombia, it extends the Momentum scenario by accelerating electrification of two- and three-wheelers, segments that have seen exponential growth in ICE vehicles in recent years.
The good news is that Colombia’s ZEV ambitions for light- and heavy-duty vehicles are already Paris-aligned, as shown in the close alignment of the Momentum and Ambitious scenarios (Figure 1). However, projected ZEV uptake in the Baseline scenario, which reflects regulations currently in place, would fall far short of Colombia’s ZEV goals. This underscores the need for further policy action to close this “regulatory gap” and support fully achieving Colombia’s ambitions.
These projections further illustrate the “regulatory gap” between announced commitments and adopted policies. When considering the need for additional action to realize Colombia’s climate ambitions, a critical missing element is supply-side regulations (SSRs). These are important policy tools because they set the future direction of the market for all automakers and in doing so provide the confidence for investments in new technology and infrastructure. SSRs can take the form of fuel efficiency standards, CO2 standards, or ZEV regulations. Of these three options, a ZEV regulation could be developed quickly and would be easier to implement than fuel efficiency or CO2 standards. However, ZEV regulations are not currently under discussion in Colombia, whereas fuel efficiency standards are actively being considered.
Although fuel efficiency standards are more complicated to implement than a ZEV regulation, they could be designed to meet Colombia’s ZEV targets while still providing an incentive for cost-effective ICE efficiency improvements. The European Union’s CO2 standards for cars and vans and heavy-duty vehicles are examples of SSRs that are stringent enough to accelerate ZEV uptake while allowing automakers the flexibility to deploy ICE technologies to help meet the targets as they ramp up ZEV uptake. If Colombia adopts fuel efficiency standards, it’s crucial to ensure these are stringent enough to meet its ZEV goals; setting weak standards that achieve only incremental ICE improvements or provide generous credits for ZEVs would leave a substantial regulatory gap.
Two-wheeler electrification represents an additional opportunity, as Colombia has not yet established targets for 100% ZEV sales as it has done for light- and heavy-duty vehicles. A ZEV regulation would be a logical choice for this rapidly growing segment as it could be electrified quickly if manufacturers offer competitively priced electric models.
The Colombian government has established four strategic axes for decarbonizing transportation: public policies, sustainable mobility and smart cities, reindustrialization of mobility, and multimodality. In addition to reducing emissions, implementing well-designed SSRs would also support Colombia’s reindustrialization agenda by providing market confidence and driving investments in vehicle supply and charging infrastructure. With decisive policy action, Colombia could become a leader in transportation decarbonization in Latin America while realizing the economic, environmental, and public health benefits of a cleaner vehicle fleet.
Authors
Oscar Delgado
Heavy-Duty Vehicles Program Director, Latin America and India
Jacob Teter
Consultant
Josh Miller
Director of Modeling, Monitoring, and Evaluation and Director of Program Services
Helmer Acevedo
Research Consultant
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