Zero-emission commercial vehicle development: Webinar 2


Background information:

The ICCT and China Automotive Technology and Research Center Co., Ltd (CATARC) jointly hosted a webinar series for zero-emission commercial vehicle development and study. On April 27, 2021, the second webinar of the series focused on the total cost of ownership (TCO) of commercial vehicles. Speakers from CALSTART, ICCT, International Transport Forum (ITF), CATARC-ADC, Greatwall Motors, and CATL presented results and key findings for the TCO study.

Key notes and takeaways:

Chase LeCroy and Dan Welch, CALSTART

  • According to interviews with Class 5 and Class 8 fleet operators in California, zero-emission models will not be used until there is a savings of 35% of operational costs for Class 5 fleet operations; for Class 8, 38%.

Shiyue Mao, ICCT

  • A typical electric dump truck with a gross vehicle weight of 31 tonnes can reach the TCO parity point in 2021 in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, China. Electric straight trucks and tractor-trailers will reach parity in 2024 and 2028, respectively. However, hydrogen fuel-cell models will not get to the breakeven point before 2030 if there is no further policy intervention.

Pierpaolo Cazzola, ITF

  • Higher mileage of LCVs can maximize electrification benefits, especially with predictable daily use.
  • It is suggested that electrification on fleets with higher daily mileage and regular driving patterns should be prioritized. Stringency on fuel economy standards and economic incentives of LCVs are also beneficial for this campaign.


  • Key component costs of NEV are declining due to an economy of scale. The cost of battery systems will go down to 643 and 383 CNY/kWh, and fuel-cell systems will decline to 316 and 148 CNY/kWh by 2030 and 2050, respectively.

Dr. Sergey Ulyakhin, Greatwall Motors

  • Hydrogen will be widely applied in long-haul transport and the forklift industry by 2030.
  • The driving range on TCO of hydrogen fuel-cell models is not as sensitive as electric. Hydrogen and electric models will equally reach between 300–400km by 2030. However, durability and efficiency will become key indicators for TCO of hydrogen fuel-cell models.

Zhou Chen, CATL

  • CATL evaluated several use cases of heavy-duty vehicles in terms of TCO. Electric vehicles benefited with an 11% reduction of TCO for mining transport, 3.5% for port container delivery, 11% for coal drayage, etc., but fail to benefit on TCO from long-haul logistics delivery.

Webinar materials including the agenda, list of speakers, and presentation are provided below:


Shiyue Mao