Working Paper

Air quality benefits of an accelerated transition to new energy vehicles in Hainan Province, China 

Hainan Province aims to be a world leader in environmental quality by 2035, While  the acceleration of the electrification process for HDVs is necessary to response to the ambitious environmental targets. This study explores the environmental benefits of accelerating the transition to new energy vehicles (NEVs), especially for HDVs in Hainan, which is not regulated in the Hainan NEV development plan. Our findings highlight how faster NEV adoption can help Hainan improve its local air quality by 2035.

The paper’s methodology involves projecting emissions for multiple sectors through 2035 and then calculating transportation emissions under both a Business-As-Usual scenario and an Accelerated Electrification scenario. Air quality modeling shows that faster adoption of NEVs, particularly for buses and heavy-duty vehicles, would lead to significant reductions in pollutants.  By 2035, Accelerated Electrification could reduce transportation-related concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) by 67%, fine particulate matter (PM2.5) by 42%, and ozone by 44% compared to the Business-As-Usual scenario.

The findings underscore the benefits of accelerating the electrification of Hainan’s coaches and trucks will help improve ambient air quality, especially for ozone, even as the province experiences higher levels of socioeconomic activity and growth in the number of vehicles.

Zero-emission vehicles
Emissions modeling