Fuel-efficiency technology trend assessment for LDVs in China: Summary of working paper series
An overview of the efficiency technologies shows that the potential for reducing vehicle fuel consumption by adopting advanced technologies is great. We group the technologies into three categories based on application status in China: commercialized technologies, emerging technologies, and underdeveloped technologies.
For conventional vehicles, we find that adoption of the most efficient commercialized technologies can reduce vehicle fuel consumption by 31%. The potential reduction for vehicles that additionally apply emerging technologies is 51%, and further application of underdeveloped technologies can bring cumulative savings to 73%. Whichever technology route is chosen, upgrading engine technologies contributes the most to fuel saving.
For electrified vehicles, average mild hybrid electric vehicles reduce fuel consumption by 12%, and full hybrid electric vehicles, 30%. The combination of battery-only and charge-sustaining modes of plug-in hybrid vehicles can reduce fuel consumption by as much as 80%, although the fuel savings in charge-sustaining mode of those vehicles are not as high as the advanced full hybrid electric vehicle models.
Comparing globally, most mainstream efficiency technologies are available in China and even have a comparable market penetration as in the United States and European Union. We found that much of the application of advanced efficiency technologies is by joint ventures. This means many key technologies are patented by international automakers. Independent automakers are stepping up efforts to develop domestic-brand technologies, which would be critical for China to keep up with advances in other vehicle markets.
This paper is a summary of a series of ICCT working paper that aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the current availability, effectiveness, and future market penetration of key fuel-efficiency technologies that manufacturers are likely to use in China by 2030. This information enables a more accurate, China-specific understanding of future technology pathways.