Working Paper
Assessment of automotive steel demand in the United States
The report assesses the steel demand for the production of the body-in-white (BiW) of light-duty vehicles (LDVs) and estimates the greenhouse gas emissions reduction potential if the industry were to replace today’s conventional steel in the BiW with green steel from green hydrogen-direct reduced iron-electric arc furnace (i.e., H2-DRI-EAF) steelmaking. It also quantifies the potential cost increase associated with substituting conventional steel with green steel.
The assessment finds that U.S. light-duty BiW automotive steel demand is about 3.9 million tonnes annually. If automakers switch to green steel, this 3.9 Mt demand could be met by two new, fully operational green steel facilities or two retrofitted existing steel facilities. Total U.S. automotive steel demand was estimated to be around 11 Mt in 2023, indicating the considerable decarbonization potential of substituting green steel throughout the automotive sector.
Using green steel to manufacture the BiW for LDVs produced in the United States could save around 6.4 Mt of CO2-equivelant (CO2e) emissions annually. This reflects an 84% reduction in CO2e emissions compared to conventional steel. Assuming a widespread supply of green steel and that emissions savings remain constant from 2025 through 2030, about 38 Mt of CO2e could be avoided by substituting green steel for conventional steel to construct BiWs for LDVs. This amount of emission reductions is comparable to the cumulative emission reductions expected from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s multi-pollutant rule for light-duty and medium-duty vehicles through 2030.
Switching to green steel in the BiW would cost about $199 per vehicle on average, an increase of about 0.66% in the case of a $30,000 vehicle. It is anticipated that green steel costs will decline over time as the prices of hydrogen and renewable electricity decrease and hydrogen electrolyzers are increasingly commercialized.