Vision 2050: Update on the global zero-emission vehicle transition in 2023
Report
Vision 2050: Update on the global zero-emission vehicle transition in 2024
Executive summary
Global greenhouse gas emissions must decline rapidly to limit warming to well below 2 °C, as agreed under the Paris Agreement. The road transport sector, which accounts for more than one fifth of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, offers significant opportunities for emissions reduction through the transition to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). Multiple major economies have recently adopted regulations aligned with reaching 100% ZEV or electric vehicle (EV) sales for new cars and vans by 2035, signaling growing momentum for this transition.
This study updates our annual assessment of global ZEV policies and market developments, analyzing their impact on projected vehicle sales, energy consumption, and emissions through 2050. In addition to policies in the Baseline scenarios designed in our previous studies (Baseline 2021 and Baseline 2023), we evaluate three updated scenarios: a Baseline 2024 scenario incorporating policies adopted through August 2024, a Momentum scenario that includes additional proposed policies and targets, and an Ambitious scenario aligned with Paris Agreement goals. The analysis reveals how recent policy developments have substantially increased projected ZEV uptake and provides insights into remaining gaps with a Paris-compatible emissions trajectory.
Figure. Projected global well-to-wheel CO2 emissions from road transport compared with an emissions pathway compatible with Paris Agreement goals of keeping warming under 2 °C
This figure illustrates how policies adopted over the past 3 years have significantly reduced the projected emissions through 2050. The Baseline 2024 scenario shows projected emissions peaking by 2025 and declining thereafter, driven by regulations in major markets that require high ZEV shares for new vehicle sales along with continued market uptake underpinned by the falling costs of ZEVs.
This trajectory represents a marked improvement over the Baseline 2021 scenario, which accounts for policies as of August 2021, avoiding 23 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions cumulatively through 2050. If governments achieve their stated ambitions (as in the Momentum scenario), cumulative emissions will fall by an additional 13 billion tonnes. However, a significant gap remains between these scenarios and the Paris-aligned Ambitious scenario, which represents a trajectory for global ZEV uptake compatible with limiting warming to well-below 2 °C in combination with other policy measures.
Key findings
Based on our comprehensive analysis of policy developments, market trends, and emissions trajectories, we draw the following conclusions:
Countries and regions are increasingly adopting supply-side vehicle regulations to accelerate ZEV adoption.
Since April 2023, such regulations have been adopted in six major vehicle markets, which are increasingly aligned toward achieving 100% ZEV sales for new light-duty vehicles (LDVs) by 2035. For heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs), recently adopted regulations have paved the way for ZEV sales shares of 100% in California by 2036 and 77% in the European Union by 2040.
Sales shares of ZEVs grew rapidly in many markets across vehicle segments.
Recent trends demonstrate quick market responses across various regions and vehicle segments, with 2022–2023 seeing double-digit increases in ZEV sales shares for cars in Thailand and Vietnam and for buses in Canada, the United Kingdom, and Chile. ZEV sales shares for medium trucks more than doubled year-over-year in the European Union and the United Kingdom over the same period. These developments show that markets can respond swiftly when favorable conditions align.
International initiatives continue to build momentum for the global ZEV transition.
The ZEV Declaration and Global Memorandum of Understanding on Zero-Emission Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles have garnered new signatories and now represent roughly one quarter of the global new vehicle market. The ZEV Declaration gained three new signatories between April 2023 (Baseline 2023) and August 2024 (Baseline 2024): Colombia, Costa Rica, and Nigeria. The Global HDV MOU added 11 new signatories, including Colombia, Costa Rica, Ethiopia, Ghana, and Mozambique.
Global road transport CO2 emissions and liquid fuels consumption could peak as soon as 2025.
In the Baseline 2024 scenario, emission reductions among three of the six largest emitters—the United States, the European Union, and China—are projected to offset emissions growth in other countries. However, these peaks could be delayed if global vehicle activity grows faster than anticipated, if existing policies are weakened, or if ZEV sales slow in major markets without binding policies.
Despite significant progress, a gap remains between current commitments and a Paris-aligned ZEV trajectory.
For LDVs, recently adopted policies and commitments have nearly halved the ambition gap, in terms of ZEV sales shares projected in 2030, between the Baseline 2021 and Ambitious scenarios. The gap has shrunk by one third for HDVs and by one fifth for two- and three-wheelers. While progress has been substantial, regional disparities persist, with major economies like China, Indonesia, and Brazil showing smaller reductions in their ambition gaps.
Download the supplemental data here.
For media and press inquiries, please contact Kelli Pennington, Global Communications Manager, at communications@theicct.org.
