Working Paper

Assessing the potential advanced alternative fuel volumes in the Netherlands in 2030

Alternative fuels Strategies

This working paper estimates the volumes of advanced, non-food-based fuels that could contribute to the Netherlands’ RED II obligation in 2030, focusing on the country’s domestic resources. A cost and availability-constrained assessment is utilized to evaluate the advanced alternative fuel potential for the Netherlands through 2030 across three different incentive levels for alternative fuels.

The analysis finds that policies supporting advanced, non-food-based fuels can deliver substantial carbon savings —as much as 2.4 million tonnes of CO2-equivalents annually in a high policy support scenario of €2.00 per liter, after taking into account indirect emissions. The overall 14% transport sector renewable energy target under the RED II can largely be met through the increased deployment of electric vehicles, likely driven by other policies, such as the deployment of new charging infrastructure and stricter vehicle efficiency or emissions standards. However, the advanced fuel sub-target is much more challenging to meet: the domestic availability of wastes and residues eligible for the Annex IX List A advanced fuels sub-target are insufficient to allow the Netherlands to meet the target in the absence of imports. Furthermore, these types of fuels require substantial policy support of at least €1 per liter in order to approach the 3.5% sub-target.

Figure 3. Projected advanced alternative fuel volumes to 2030 in the high policy support scenario