Aviation Vision 2050: The potential for climate-neutral growth

In 2022, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) agreed to achieve net-zero carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions by 2050, but that goal alone will not be enough to comply with the Paris Agreement. Recent research has highlighted the aviation emission’s effects on global warming, which extend beyond CO₂ emissions to include short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) such as nitrogen oxides, black carbon, and contrail cirrus.

This report updates the ICCT’s Vision 2050 decarbonization roadmap for the aviation sector by quantifying how SLCP mitigation can complement greenhouse gas (GHG) strategies to align aviation with the Paris Agreement. The report concludes that in the Full Breakthrough scenario, which blends maximum GHG and SLCP mitigation, additional aviation warming could be cut by more than 90% below the Historical Trends scenario and limits aviation’s share of additional contribution to the remaining 1.7 °C budget to 2%.

Figure. Aviation’s projected contribution to global warming by scenario, 1940 to 2050

Key conclusions of this work include:

• A 2050 net-zero CO₂ target is a necessary but not sufficient condition to align aviation with the Paris Agreement.
• SLCP controls, notably contrail avoidance, can complement GHG mitigation by delivering substantial near-term reductions via easier-to-implement technology solutions.
• Four mitigation levers—contrail avoidance, SAFs, hydrotreating, and operational efficiency—are projected to account for nearly 90% of avoidable warming in 2050.
• Control of SLCPs is estimated to result in a climate benefit despite the expected increase in GHG emissions from their implementation.

Policy could prioritize the top four mitigation levers found in the study – contrail avoidance, SAFs, hydrotreating, and operational efficiency. Solutions include widescale avoidance trials coordinated by air navigation service providers, mandates and incentives for SAF and hydrotreating fossil jet fuel, carbon pricing policies to promote more fuel-efficient operations, and deployment of sustainable aviation fuels.

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