Consultant report

Canadian passenger vehicle scrappage policy analysis

To mitigate the negative economic impacts caused by COVID-19, the federal government in Canada is considering a vehicle replacement program to spur the recovery of the automotive industry. To inform this potential policy currently being considered, this consultant report quantifies the GHG emissions impact of different scenarios for what replacement vehicles would be eligible to participate in the program.

A hypothetical 2020 vehicle replacement program would achieve the largest greenhouse gas reductions if it was limited to battery electric vehicles only. As compared to a baseline scenario in which an average efficiency model year 2020 vehicle is the replacement, the scenario in which only an electric vehicle is allowed as a replacement yields roughly ten times the cumulative carbon dioxide reductions between 2021 and 2030. Unsurprisingly, in the other scenarios with less stringent vehicle replacement requirements, there are decreased emission reduction benefits.