Fuel burn of new commercial jet aircraft: 1960 to 2024

Improving the fuel burn performance of the coming generation of aircraft will be pivotal for managing aviation climate impact and achieving aviation’s net-zero emissions goal. While there has been a significant reduction in average aircraft fuel burn since the late 1980s, many of the newest and most popular aircraft already exceed the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) 2028 CO₂ standards. However, these improvements have stagnated since 2020, largely because manufacturers have signaled that they do not plan to develop new narrowbody aircraft types until the mid-2030s. Stricter standards will be needed to encourage new-type aircraft and make further gains in decarbonization.

The figure below illustrates the performance of newly delivered aircraft against the ICAO CO₂ standard. The study finds that by 2016, the average aircraft delivered was already 6% more fuel efficient than the finalized in production standard. The shaded grey area indicates the gradual implementation of the standard starting in 2020, with the stricter new type (NT) standard that is 4% below the main requirement for new designs aimed at further improving fuel efficiency before full implementation in 2028. This paper updates a previous 2020 ICCT study and shows that new aircraft type certifications have fallen from a peak of six per year in the late 1990s to less than one per year after 2020. Aside from the Boeing 777x, manufacturers have not made commitments to additional new-type aircraft before 2035.

Even as ICAO’s standards kicked in starting 2020, we have seen fuel burn improvements stagnate. Stricter standards are needed to drive progress.

The work concludes that:

• A CO₂ standard 15% more stringent than the current standard is needed to promote new types
• Policies that focus on applying the CO₂ standards to in-service aircraft could encourage the adoption of NTs.
• Carbon pricing, including emissions trading and a carbon tax, could create additional demand for more fuel-efficient aircraft by raising the operating costs of older aircraft
• ICAO could consider setting separate requirements for freighters and compliance flexibility mechanisms like averaging and banking.

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