Fuel consumption from new passenger cars in India: Manufacturers’ performance in fiscal year 2019–20
New fuel consumption limits for passenger vehicles are scheduled to take effect in India in FY 2022–23, and this paper examines the performance of manufacturer groups with respect to new passenger vehicles sold in FY 2019–20. The FY 2022–23 standards are much less stringent than the EU 2021 standards, and indeed, this analysis of Segment Y data finds that manufacturers have already made significant progress toward compliance. Fleet average carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for FY 2019–20 was 122.4 grams (g) per kilometer (km). Assuming similar industry average weight going forward, the compliance target for FY 2022–23 will be 109.4 gCO2/km. This means that the Indian automobile industry need only reduce fuel consumption by approximately 3.67% per year over the next 3 years to meet the FY 2022–23 standards.
Additionally, based on this analysis, the actual, real-world decrease in fuel consumption will almost certainly be lower, because manufacturers are likely to expand their use of super credits and flexibility mechanisms. While super credits had minimal impact on the FY 2019–20 fleet, their impact could grow rapidly as the market share of battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and strong hybrids goes up. The figure below illustrates performance with flexibility mechanisms, which include derogation factors for 6-speed transmission, regenerative braking, start-stop, and tire pressure monitoring systems, as well as super credits from the sale of electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles. Manufacturers like MG and FCA have benefited from these flexibility mechanisms. Additionally, given that 25.5% of the FY 2019–20 passenger cars sold in India were equipped with 6-speed or more transmissions, regulators should consider not granting CO2 credits for this technology any longer, as the provision is intended to promote innovation and new technology adoption.
Note: This paper was updated on 22 April, 2021 to correct the strong hybrids for BMW and Volvo to PHEVs, and to make related corrections in Tables 1 and 3 through 6.