Hybrid vehicle technology developments and opportunities in the 2025–2035 time frame

Fleet-average emission standards can be met with increased sales of zero-emission vehicles, even with little or no reduction in tailpipe emissions of new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. This phenomenon is known as “backsliding,” where the average emissions of ICE vehicles could increase, since growing numbers of electric vehicles could reduce or eliminate regulatory motivation to improve non-plug-in models.

To continue reducing emissions from new vehicles and decrease the risk of combustion engine vehicle backsliding, fleet-average standards could be strengthened, or ICE-only standards could be developed. Strong hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) represent the maximum level of greenhouse gas reductions achievable in non-plug-in vehicles demonstrated through 2024 and are readily available technologies automakers can implement cost-effectively beginning in 2025.

This paper analyzed HEV technology and potential CO₂ emission reductions, the historic and future costs of this technology, and how future regulations could be designed to minimize emissions from ICE-equipped vehicles and arrives at the following conclusions:

• Strong hybrids are cost-effective for consumers and automakers.
• Hybrid vehicles cost less than previously assumed in regulatory documents and their cost will likely decrease further in the future.
• The efficiency of hybrids can continue to improve through application of known, cost-effective technologies.

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