Estimating the fuel efficiency technology potential of heavy-duty trucks in major markets around the world
Market penetration of fuel efficiency technologies for heavy-duty vehicles in the European Union, the United States, and China
As the global demand for freight transport continues to grow, improving the efficiency of on-road freight vehicles is an increasingly important step to mitigate the resulting climate impacts, reduce energy dependence, and improve industry competitiveness.
This study investigates the market adoption trends of 27 heavy-duty vehicle technologies in the European Union (EU), the United States, and China. This study presents 20 years of technology market penetration data, supplemented with data from other sources, and analyzes the trends in selected technology adoption on tractor-trailers and rigid trucks in the world’s three largest automotive markets. The individual potential for each technology to improve fuel efficiency in those markets is also determined through a combination of literature review and vehicle simulation modeling. Finally, a handful of near-commercial technologies are summarized and discussed.
The findings from this work indicate that there is potential for short-term improvement of the overall efficiency of the heavy-duty vehicle fleet in the European Union, the United States, and China, by increasing the market adoption of existing, commercialized technologies. The findings also suggest that, in general, market forces on their own are not enough to facilitate rapid and full market adoption of efficiency technologies. In addition, the study identifies near-commercialized technologies that will be available in select markets in the 2025–2030 time frame.