China’s zero-emission truck and bus market reaches historic high of 230,000 units sold in 2024
Market Spotlight
Zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty vehicle market in China, 2024
Overview
This overview of China’s zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (ZE-MHDV) market covers medium and heavy straight trucks, tractor-trailers above 3.5 tonnes, and city buses and coaches. Sales of ZE-MHDVs in China spiked twice in the last decade: the first in 2015–2016, underpinned by government subsidies, and the second in 2024, with a historical high of more than 230,000 sales. Sales of ZE-MHDVs boomed in Q4, thanks to a strong macroeconomic stimulus package released by the Chinese government in September of that year.
In 2024, trucks and tractor-trailers dominated the ZE-MHDV market, with a market share of ~80%, suggesting that the industry is rapidly embracing zero-emission solutions for freight and trucking. In contrast, the general decline of bus and coach sales over time indicates greater market saturation compared with the freight industry after being the focus of promotional policies in previous years.
Heavy trucks
The heavy truck market in 2024 saw changes in the mix of fuel types from previous years. In 2024, diesel trucks accounted for 57% of sales, down from 70% in 2023, and trucks powered by natural gas made up 29% of total sales. Battery electric trucks reached a 13% sales share and were the third most popular powertrain technology in the market.
Sales of both battery electric and fuel-cell heavy trucks grew steadily in 2024, the exception of a dip in February during the Spring Festival when most business activities are paused. In December, sales of battery electric heavy trucks soared to more than 14,700 and the market share hit a new high of 20.9%, more than double the sales in January 2024. The market for fuel-cell heavy trucks remains nascent, with 581 vehicles sold in December 2024, a market share of 0.8%.
Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries continue to dominate the heavy truck market in China. In terms of capacity, the most popular battery sizes for these vehicles in 2024 were 282 kWh, 350 kWh, and 423 kWh, indicating a balance between battery cost and operational efficiency.
In 2024, the combined market share of the top five original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) of internal combustion engine (ICE) heavy trucks (FAW, Dongfeng Motor, Foton-Daimler, Shaanxi Auto, Sinotruk/CNHTC) was 75%, while the market share of the top five manufacturers of zero-emission trucks (XCMG, SANY, FAW, Hunan Truck, Shaanxi Auto) was 54%. This implies that the zero-emission heavy truck market is catching up to a similar level of market maturity as that of ICE trucks, with the top OEMs dominating a growing share of the market.
Medium trucks
Diesel remained the dominant powertrain in the medium truck market in 2024, accounting for 81% of total sales. Battery electric trucks reached a 14% market share, making it the second most popular powertrain in the segment.
Battery electric trucks showed steady growth in market share, reaching 22% in December 2024, almost three times the market share in January 2024. In 2024, 1,710 fuel-cell medium trucks were sold, representing a 0.25% market share; this powertrain remains in early stages of market development in this segment.
Lithium iron phosphate is the dominant battery chemistry among medium battery electric trucks in China. Most electric medium truck models were equipped with 50 kWh to 100 kWh batteries to balance cost and available range.
There is a small gap in the market share of the top five ICE and zero-emission medium truck OEMs. In 2024, the market share of the top five ICE truck OEMs (Foton, JAC, Sinotruk/CNHTC, JMC Motors and FAW) was 64%, while the market share of zero-emission truck OEMs (Geely, Foton, Yutong, Dongfeng Motor and Shaanxi Auto) was 53%. Similar to the pattern in heavy truck industry, the market shares imply that the zero-emission market is quickly maturing and catching up to the ICE medium truck market.
City buses and coaches
City buses have the highest electrification rate of all vehicle categories in China, with a cumulative battery electric, hybrid electric, and fuel-cell electric market share of almost 100% as of 2024. Electrification among coaches, which are used for intercity transport, has been far more limited; the market share of battery electric coaches was 6% in 2024, and most coaches were still powered by diesel.
In terms of market share, there were no major changes in the adoption of zero-emission technologies in 2024. City bus sales saw a peak in December with over 17,000 buses sold, which were predominantly battery electric (~99%). The soaring sales of electric buses in December was primarily driven by incentives for the replacement of older e-buses and batteries, which were scheduled to end that month. As of December 2024, the market share of battery electric coaches was 12%, the highest level in 2024. Sales of fuel-cell electric coaches were in the single or double digits of sales in most months, but peaked in July and August with 182 and 247 vehicles, respectively.
Technology focus: Battery swapping
The use of battery swapping technology, whereby a depleted electric vehicle battery can be switched out for a fully charged replacement, has gained in popularity in China in recent years, particularly for trucks and tractors. Fleet operators can save on the upfront investment in battery electric vehicles by purchasing vehicles without batteries installed and renting batteries from third-party lessors. Operators can also maximize running time assuming there is battery swapping infrastructure deployed close to their yard.
In 2024, sales of swap-capable vehicles reached a total of 29,569, a 94% growth from 2023. The popularity of swap-capable vehicles has been jointly driven by policy and market developments: several policies were introduced in 2024 to support this emerging technology and pilot projects have been launched to assess use cases in several industries, including mining, steel, and port logistics.
Technology focus: Natural gas
The boom of natural gas-powered trucks is an emerging phenomenon in China, particularly since 2023. The reasons are multifold: first, China lifted all transport restrictions during COVID-19 pandemic by the end of 2022, injecting new momentum to new sales of trucks; second, natural gas imports have surged since 2022, making natural gas-powered trucks cheaper from the perspective of total cost of ownership. Two peaks in sales were observed in September of 2023 and March of 2024, likely due to decreases in the price of natural gas relative to diesel.
However, the popularity of natural gas-powered trucks raises concerns regarding pollutant emissions. While natural gas is viewed by some as a clean alternative energy to conventional fuels like diesel and gasoline, trucks powered by natural gas tend to have high nitrogen oxide and greenhouse gas emissions from combustion and methane leakage. Natural gas trucks have also been found to only provide marginal improvements compared with diesel trucks in terms of greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions.
Terminology and data sources
A zero-emission vehicle is any vehicle whose propulsion system produces zero combustion emissions, such as a dedicated battery electric, fuel-cell electric, or other motor that is not driven by combustion.
A heavy truck is a truck with a gross vehicle weight above 12 tonnes.
A medium truck is a truck or van with a gross vehicle weight between 3.5 and 12 tonnes.
A city bus is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes that is used exclusively in urban environments.
A coach is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes that is used exclusively in inter-city environments.
All data are provided by Gasgoo Auto, (https://auto.gasgoo.com/), an auto data aggregator in China.