Cost-benefit assessment of the China VI emission standard for new heavy-duty vehicles
Briefing
广东省提前实施轻重型车国六排放标准的减排效益分析
型车国六排放标准和重型车国六排放标准均融合了欧标和美标的先进之处，是当下全球最严格的机动车排放标准之一。广东省已于2019年7月1日提前实施轻型车国六排放标准，但尚未确定重型车国六排放标准的实施时间。
在这份简报中，我们按照广东省在提前实施轻型车国六排放标准的基础之上又于2021年7月1日起提前实施重型车国六排放标准的政策情景，模拟分析了广东省提前实施轻重型车国六这两套标准所能够获得的减排效益。
研究结果显示，提前实施轻重型车国六排放标准可以在2035年将广东省汽车单年的CO、HC、NOx和PM排放分别降低40%、84%、65%和59%。其中，轻型车国六排放标准对CO和HC减排的贡献较大，而重型车国六排放标准则对NOx和PM减排的效果更佳。截至2035年底，广东省提前实施轻重型车国六两套标准可以累计减排467万吨CO、398万吨HC、416万吨NOx以及12万吨PM，从而对广东省近中远期空气质量改善目标的实现提供有效助力。但是需要强调的是，轻重型车国六排放标准并非万能钥匙。广东省在提前实施轻重型车国六排放标准的同时，还需要持续积极推动当地新能源汽车的发展，这样才能够保障当地汽车污染物排放的长期、持续下降。
The China 6 light-duty vehicle emission standard and China VI heavy-duty vehicle emission standard are among the world’s most stringent and combine best practices from both European and U.S. regulations. Guangdong province implemented the China 6 standard on July 1, 2019, earlier than the national plan; however, it has not yet determined its timeline for implementing the China VI standard.
This paper [Translated title: Benefits assessment of early implementation of the China 6/VI vehicle emission standards in Guangdong] evaluates the emission reduction benefits of early implementation of both the China 6 and China VI standards in Guangdong province, under a policy scenario in which Guangdong adopts the full China VI standard early, on July 1, 2021.
According to our analysis, early implementation would reduce carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbon (HC), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and particulate matter (PM) emissions in Guangdong by 40%, 84%, 65%, and 59%, respectively, in 2035. There is a larger impact on CO and HC emission reduction from the China 6 standard and the China VI standard will bring about more NOx and PM emission reduction. The cumulative emission reduction of CO, HC, NOx, and PM in Guandong from early implementation of both standards would be 4,670 metric tons, 3,980 metric tons, 4,160 metric tons, and 120,000 metric tons, respectively, through 2035. These huge emission reduction benefits will effectively contribute to the achievement of Guangdong’s near-to-long term air quality goals. However, implementing the China 6 and China VI standards is not the ultimate solution. Guangdong also needs to continue accelerating the deployment of zero-emission vehicles to ensure a sustained reduction of vehicle emissions in the long term.
