How things work: OMEGA modeling case study based on the 2018 Toyota Camry

The 2018 Toyota Camry incorporates eight technology upgrades that are specifically modelled in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Optimization Model for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases from Automobiles (OMEGA) and Lumped Parameter Model (LPM). This large number of simultaneous technology upgrades makes the Camry an excellent case study of how accurately the EPA’s models project future technology benefits and handle synergies between technologies.

This paper defines and adjusts for all differences between the 2015 and 2018 Camry and all differences between the EPA’s technology assumptions and technology on the 2018 Camry. The results show that the actual CO₂ reductions of 18.6% achieved in the 2018 Camry exceed the 17.7% reductions predicted by EPA models. This confirms that the OMEGA and LPM models accurately predict both new technology benefits and synergies between technologies. It also suggests that other studies contradicting EPA model outcomes are inaccurate and underpredict future technology benefits.