Market Spotlight
European Market Monitor: Cars and vans (January 2025)
Passenger car registrations
Figure 2. Average CO2 emissions of manufacturer pools compared with their estimated 2025 targets, 2025 YTD
Note: Average emissions include compliance credits. Suzuki is a large manufacturer that is not currently part of a pool. All CO2 values are estimates according to the Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP). See the section on definitions, data sources, methodology, and assumptions for details.
Average carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (including compliance credits) among manufacturer pools fell substantially in the first month of the year to 103 g CO2/km, down from the average of 107 g CO2/km in 2024. KG Mobility, BMW, and Kia are thus far compliant with their estimated 2025 targets, while Volkswagen (17 g CO2/km above) and Suzuki (13 g CO2/km above) are the farthest from reaching their targets. Manufacturer pools are now only 10 g CO2/km from the average target of 93 g CO2/km for 2025. Looking at individual car brands with market shares of at least 1%, apart from Tesla, Volvo had the greatest over-compliance at 35 g CO2/km below its target for 2025, when projecting the target at the brand level; it was followed by Cupra, which was 15 g CO2/km below its brand-level target. Audi, Ford, and Mercedes-Benz are currently the farthest from their 2025 projected brand-level targets at 35, 28, and 27 g CO2/km above, respectively.
Table 1. Share of battery electric, plug-in hybrid, full hybrid, and mild hybrid passenger cars by manufacturer pool and Suzuki, a large manufacturer not part of a pool
Table 2. Fleet-average CO2 emissions of new passenger cars and market share by manufacturer pool and Suzuki, a large manufacturer not part of a pool
Table 3. Fleet-average CO2 emissions of new passenger cars and market share by manufacturer group
Passenger car registrations by country
Passenger car registrations in Belgium fell 13% in January 2025 compared with January 2024, and registrations in Austria and Sweden increased by 16% and 14%, respectively. Combined BEV and PHEV market shares averaged 24% in Europe in January 2025, up two percentage points from the average for full year 2024. Norway (97%), Denmark (66%), Sweden (51%), and the Netherlands (50%) all had shares at or above 50%, and Belgium (43%), Ireland (28%), and Germany (25%) recorded combined BEV and PHEV market shares above the average for Europe. The highest increase in BEV registrations occurred in Belgium, where shares increased 5 percentage points in January 2025 compared with January 2024; meanwhile, BEV shares in Sweden dropped 6 percentage points compared with January 2024. Registration shares of PHEVs were the highest in Sweden (23%), HEV shares were highest in Poland (27%), and MHEV shares were highest in Italy (33%).
Figure 3. Share of plug-in hybrid and battery electric passenger cars by country, including information on market size (total new car registrations)
Note: “Other” includes EEA countries not individually highlighted in the figure, except for Bulgaria, Cyprus, Liechtenstein, Hungary, Malta, and Slovakia.
Table 4. New passenger car registrations by country
Table 5. Share of battery electric, plug-in hybrid, full hybrid, and mild hybrid passenger cars by country
Passenger car registrations by owner
Spotlight: Germany
Figure 5. Share of plug-in hybrid and battery electric in new passenger car registrations in Germany. Source: VDA
Figure 6. Domestic plug-in hybrid and battery electric car production in Germany
Definitions, data sources, methodology, and assumptions
- Manufacturer pools: Automakers are allowed to form pools to jointly comply with CO2 targets. For this publication, the 2025 pools are defined according to the European Commission’s “M1 pooling list,” version of 15 January 2025, as well as the “Declarations of intent to form Open Pools,” version of 7 January 2025. The main brands are: BMW Group (BMW, Mini), Hyundai (Hyundai), KG Mobility (Great Wall Motor, Xpeng), Kia (Kia), Mercedes-Benz (Mercedes-Benz, Polestar, Smart, Volvo), Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi (Dacia, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Renault), Suzuki, Tesla (Alfa Romeo, Citroën, Fiat, Ford, Jeep, Lancia, Leapmotor, Lexus, Mazda, Opel, Peugeot, Subaru, Tesla, Toyota), Volkswagen (Audi, Cupra, Porsche, SEAT, Škoda, VW).
- Abbreviations: CO2 = carbon dioxide emissions; g/km = grams per kilometer; ZLEV = zero- and low-emission vehicle.
- Technical scope: This publication focuses on new passenger car registrations. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are powered exclusively by an electric motor, with no additional source of propulsion. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) combine a conventional combustion engine with an electric propulsion system that can be recharged via an external power source. Hybrid electric vehicles here include full hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and mild hybrid electric vehicles (MHEVs). HEVs and MHEVs integrate two propulsion systems, usually a combustion engine and an electric propulsion system that cannot be recharged via an external power source. Key differences between HEVs and MHEVs are the system voltage and system power. This enables HEVs to drive partially pure electric, while the electric propulsion system of MHEVs is typically only capable of assisting the combustion engine. For more on HEVs and MHEVs, see Jan Dornoff, John German, Ashok Deo, and Athanasios Dimaratos, Mild-Hybrid Vehicles: A Near Term Technology Trend for CO2 Emissions Reduction (International Council on Clean Transportation, 2022), https://theicct.org/publication/mild-hybrid-emissions-jul22/.
- Geographic scope: The European CO2 regulation for vehicle manufacturers applies to all countries of the European Economic Area (EEA). This includes the 27 Member States of the European Union plus Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway. Data for new car registrations and shares of electric vehicles in this publication cover all of these countries, with the exception of Cyprus, Liechtenstein, Hungary, Malta, and Slovakia. Data for CO2 emission levels additionally omits Bulgaria and Romania.
- Data sources: Dataforce (new vehicle registrations), European Environment Agency (EEA; vehicle WLTP test mass and eco-innovation credits), Verband der Automobilindustrie (VDA; historic vehicle production as well as forecasts on registrations and production for Germany).
- Results may change over time: Registrations and/or CO2 data may be retrospectively updated by some of the national type-approval authorities.
- Test procedures: CO2 values are provided according to the Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP).
- Flexible compliance mechanisms: To facilitate meeting their CO2 targets, manufacturers can make use of a number of compliance mechanisms: (1) Manufacturers can reduce their CO2 level by up to 6 g/km by deploying eco-innovation technologies. As a conservative estimate, we apply the 2023 level of eco-innovation CO2 emission reductions per brand. For more on the methodology used, see Uwe Tietge, Peter Mock, and Jan Dornoff, Overview and Evaluation of Eco-Innovations in European Passenger Car CO2 Standards (International Council on Clean Transportation, 2018), https://theicct.org/publications/eco-innovations-european-passenger-car-co2-standards; (2) If a manufacturer’s ZLEV share exceeds 25%, its CO2 target is increased by the same number of percentage points, up to a maximum of 5%. This adjustment is referred to as the ZLEV factor, while the target before adjustment is called the manufacturer reference target. The manufacturer target is calculated by multiplying the reference target by the ZLEV factor. ZLEVs are BEVs and vehicles with CO2 emissions of 50 g/km (WLTP) or less. For details on the ZLEV factor mechanism, see Jan Dornoff, CO2 Emission Standards for New Passenger Cars and Vans in the European Union (International Council on Clean Transportation, 2023), https://theicct.org/publication/eu-co2-standards-cars-vans-may23/.
- Mass-based targets: For each manufacturer pool, a specific 2025 CO2 target value applies, depending on the average WLTP test mass of the new vehicles registered. For this publication, we assume the average WLTP test mass per manufacturer pool remains the same as in 2023; the average 2023 BEV and non-BEV test mass for each manufacturer was calculated based on EEA data and then weighted according to their year-to-date 2025 BEV market shares. For more on the methodology used, see Uwe Tietge, Jan Dornoff, and Peter Mock, CO2 Emissions From New Passenger Cars in Europe: Car Manufacturers’ Performance in 2023 (International Council Clean Transportation, 2024), https://theicct.org/publication/co2-emissions-new-pv-europe-car-manufacturers-performance-2023-sept24/.
- Owner types: This publication considers four types of owners: private cars, company fleets, short-term rentals, and car dealers and manufacturers. The private car category includes all registrations under private individuals, including those of self-employed persons, provided the vehicles are not registered under a company name. Private leasing is also included. Company fleets encompass all vehicles registered to companies, excluding those intended for resale or rental. This category includes company and public administration fleets, commercial long-term rentals, commercial leases, taxis, driving schools, diplomats, etc. The size of the fleet and the extent to which the vehicles are used privately are not considered relevant. The short-term rentals type covers all registrations under large or small national and local rental companies. It also covers all vehicles flagged by authorities as being used for self-drive rental purposes. The car dealers and manufacturers type includes all vehicles registered by car dealers and manufacturers. For automakers, this includes vehicles used for press purposes as well as those for their employees. New registrations data by owner type is aggregated for the following 20 European countries: Austria, Belgium, Czechia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.
This publication is a collaboration between the ICCT, IMT-IDDRI, and ECCO think tank.
