Working Paper

Fuel consumption from new passenger cars in India: Manufacturers’ performance in fiscal year 2020–21

This is the latest in a series of studies assessing how manufacturer groups are performing with respect to India’s fuel consumption standards, which are slated to become more stringent in fiscal year (FY) 2022–23. This study also compares the technology included in best-in-class vehicles in Europe and India. India had been close to Europe in terms of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from cars in the past decade, but the gap widened in 2020 when Europe adopted stringent regulations for 2025 and 2030.

Our analysis shows the fleet average CO2 emissions for passenger cars in India for FY 2020–21 was 121.3 g/km. Assuming similar industry average weight going forward, the compliance target for FY 2022–23 will be 113.1 g/km. To bridge the gap of 6.8% from 121.3 to 113.1 g/km in 2 years, the industry needs to reduce fuel consumption by approximately 3.5% each year. However, the actual, real-world decrease will almost certainly be lower, as manufacturers are likely to expand their use of super credits and flexibility mechanisms.

Additionally, as shown in the figure below, India’s Maruti Suzuki Dzire gasoline variant reduced CO2 emissions by 25%, from 132 g/CO2 in 2010 to 98 g/CO2 in 2020, simply by using incremental and cost-effective technologies. Over the same period, the Toyota Yaris hybrid that is popular in Europe improved its CO2 emissions by 49% by including a higher voltage electrical system, an electric motor, and a lithium-ion battery. We find that improved technologies widely available in other regions could be added to vehicles in India with minimal new investment.