Benefits of the 2020 Multi-State Medium- and Heavy-Duty Zero-Emission Vehicle Memorandum of Understanding

This paper estimates the multiple benefits of achieving the zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty sales targets of the Multi-state Memorandum of Understanding in select states. Without new policies, this study finds that the baseline reduction in well-to-wheel CO₂ emissions of the medium- and heavy-duty fleet across 14 states and the District of Columbia are on a path to decline 8% below 2020 levels by 2030 and 23% below 2020 levels by 2050. NO_x emissions are projected to decline through the late 2030s as the oldest generation of ICE vehicles are replaced with newer vehicles manufactured to comply with U.S. 2010 and Tier 3 emission standards.

Adoption of the California Advanced Clean Trucks rule in these states, which sets minimum ZEV sales requirements on manufacturers of Class 2b-8 vehicles, would lead to 36% of all new M/HD vehicles powered by zero-emission engines in 2030. In that year, 12% of vehicle miles traveled would be zero-emission, and well-to-wheel CO₂ emissions would decline to 12% below 2020 levels. Achieving the 100% zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty sales goal by 2050 would deliver well-to-wheel CO₂ emissions that are 38% below 2020 levels by 2040. Emissions would further decline to levels 66% below 2020 levels by 2050 and avoiding a cumulative 646 million metric tons of CO₂ emissions from 2020-2050.

The study also evaluates a faster pace of electrification where 100% zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty sales occur by 2040. Achieving such a goal would reduce well-to-wheel CO₂ emissions to levels 43% below 2020 levels in 2040 and 72% in 2050, cumulatively avoiding more than 120 million metric tons of additional CO₂ from 2020 to 2050.

The 2050 target would cumulatively avoid 15 thousand tons of tailpipe PM_2.5 through 2050, while faster uptake of 100% ZEV sales by 2040 would deliver 17 thousand avoided tons. In addition, MOU signatories can expect their medium- and heavy-duty ZEV goals to reduce fleet-wide NO_x emissions 14%–16% in 2035, compared to no new action. The adoption of the Heavy-Duty Omnibus rule in combination with these policies would result in 25%–31% lower emissions by 2035, approximately doubling the benefits of fleet electrification.

Table 1. Cumulative emissions reductions in MOU jurisdictions, not including California, compared to the Reference scenario, 2020–2050.

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