Roadmap to zero: The pace of Indonesia’s electric vehicle transition

Indonesia’s transportation sector is at a transformative moment. On-road vehicle stock grew by an average of 5% annually from 2015–2024 and the country is exploring pathways to transition to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) in line with its goal of reaching net-zero emissions by 2060. The wide variability in the technical characteristics, uses, and emissions across vehicle types means that Indonesia’s ZEV transition will be different for each vehicle category. To help, this paper presents ambitious-but-feasible timelines for the transition to zero-emission two- and three-wheelers, four-wheelers (cars and light commercial vehicles, which are vans and light trucks), buses, and medium and heavy trucks in Indonesia.

The authors modeled multiple scenarios, including two pathways that could put Indonesia on a path to reach net-zero emissions from road transport by 2060 (figure below). In the more ambitious Best Practice scenario, ZEVs are 100% of new sales in all vehicle segments by 2040, and the Net Zero scenario is a slightly more gradual approach where ZEVs reach 100% of new sales in all segments by 2045. Both scenarios would deliver substantial benefits in terms of reduced fuel consumption and avoided emissions when compared with the modeled Announced Targets 2050 scenario. Cumulative liquid fuel consumption through 2060 is estimated to drop by 5.1 billion (Net Zero scenario)–6.7 billion (Best Practice scenario) barrels of oil equivalent and result in 2.4 Gt (Net Zero)–3.1 Gt (Best Practice) of avoided tank-to-wheel carbon dioxide emissions.

Figure. Two scenarios that could put Indonesia on pathway to net-zero emissions from road transport by 2060

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